Well, after a grueling and seemingly interminable election cycle, next week we can all take a few days off before starting in on the 2024 campaign.
In the meantime, it would be good to consider how to handle the next four years. While most of you (dear readers) hope and expect the Dems to come out ahead, we were all stunned with the upset of Hillary in 2016; so let’s not blithely assume all will go well.
Of course, it may not be exactly next week that we know what we’ve got; election contests have been known to go into December (2000) or January (1800); but soon enough, in any case; and, hopefully, peacefully.
If Biden wins, but (thanks to Cal Cunningham’s libido or other factors), Mitch is still running the Senate, then we can look forward to four years of hardly any substantive legislation. At least much of the bleeding, in terms of foreign policy and administrative actions, can be stanched. But, that’s about it substantively. Trump’s greatest shortcoming has been the lack of moral leadership and that is something that Biden will change.
If Trump wins, all bets are off. Some folks will move to Canada/Costa Rica, but most of us will have little choice but (relatively comfortable) unhappiness and anxiety. Suicide rates among certain metropolitan elites will go up. Hands will be wrung and great damage to the country and world will result. Jobs, hope, and lives will be lost. No one will be surprised at assassination attempts and more domestic unrest. Barr, DeVos, and Trump unleashed. Many terrible thoughts run through my mind, but the question is: After hands are all wrung out, what is to be done?
1. Hunker down.
2. Create a bubble of tolerable friends and family
3. Take care of those who are most at risk.
4. Resolve to come out the other side in 2024, just as we have come out into
2020 (not pretty, but ….)
5. Find hope and gratitude (Jesus and Buddha are both available).
If the Dems take over (and there are no crises/disasters in the interregnum), don’t expect miracles. The Senate filibuster will have to be dismantled (this is a risk since the pendulum WILL swing), but getting a majority for action will not be simple. Moral leadership in the pandemic will be welcome, but huge challenges—scientific, logistical, and economic— lie in the way of moving to the ‘new normal.’ After all, the Dems are not in great/coherent shape themselves, they only seem that way by comparison.
Beyond the policy front, it is important to remember that in terms of the composition and views of “America” much has not changed. Trump’s incompetence and venality have been exposed for a while. If COVID had not shown up nine months ago, with all its personal and economic carnage, it’s quite likely we would have four more years. Similarly, if Trump had shown a modicum of political nous and really focused on re-election rather than ranting, he would have had quite a good shot. As it is, the degree to which you are worried that he might still be re-elected indicates how little is different. Was Obama a fluke? Was Trump? We have no idea how my historian successors will characterize early 21C America. Even if some Trumpians fade into the woodwork, we have to recognize the fact (not fake news here) that a lot of the country preferred his dissimulation and bluster. As a nation we have to try to understand their anger/fears and see if at least some of the root causes can be addressed.
At a policy level, it would be great if Joe and Nancy and Chuck et al. came together and knocked out a high-level legislative agenda in the first 100 days. Besides repairs, there is much to be done and much is mapped out: environment, health care, taxes, voting rights, infrastructure, economic stimulus and jobs. The gating factor is not substance: solid policy choices have been mapped out; it is (as ever) political will. Speed and momentum are more important than details in changing the national energy and attitudes. Lay down some markers, fill in the gaps and details later in the year and into 2022. Surprise everyone with a touch of compromise in order to get things done; quickly, if imperfectly. It is likely too much to expect the more aggressive wing of the party to rejoice with incremental (if meaningful) progress on all these fronts; but we can at least hope that they don’t get too righteous. This election is a referendum on Trump, not a mandate for drastic change.
At a personal level, what is to be done? My list above still pretty much applies:
1. Hunker down.
2. Create a bubble of tolerable friends and family
3. Take care of those who are most at risk.
4. Resolve to come out the other side in 2024, just as we have come out into
2020 (not pretty, but ….)
5. Find hope and gratitude (Jesus and Buddha are both available).
May the Force be with us….