Venezuela
Three years ago (120222, “Sauce for the Gander”), I wrote about geopolitical spheres of influence with particular focus on China and Taiwan. I compared that situation with the two-hundred-year-old predecessor to the “Don-roe” doctrine recently revived in Caracas. I noted that, based on our own historical practice, we didn’t have much basis for criticizing the Chinese for effectively claiming a sphere of influence encompassing Taiwan and the South China Sea. I don’t have much to add to the general point made there, other than to note that we have a long history of military interventions in Latin America, often (as here) from commercial motives (on top of some convenient distraction from domestic economic challenges).
Beyond the obvious immediate problems of morality and international and domestic law arising from our kidnapping of Maduro and threats of coercion and control, our actions must make the Chinese feel smug about the implications for their freedom of action in their own backyard (even if we effectively pushed them out of our backyard); no to mention the Russians in their Ukrainian backyard.
More fundamentally, coupled with the latest sword-rattling over Greenland (see also 011025, “Baby, It’s Cold Outside”), Cuba, and Mexico, the Administration is actively proclaiming the return of realpolitik as the basis of US foreign policy. Unfortunately, their timing is all wrong and their other foreign policy actions seem to undermine this latest thrust. The timing is wrong because China is a rising power and the US is relatively falling (see 121820, “Rising and Falling Powers”). Rather than doubling down on military might, we should be seeking other modes of constraining China, not least of which is building stronger alliances with others similarly situated (Europe, India, Japan). The practice of realpolitik, however, also requires clear-headed thinking about our strength and clear-headed thinking is rare enough, especially with the JV foreign policy team currently running the show (see 120525, “You Can’t Go Home Again").
You read it here first.
[and now back to our regularly-scheduled program.]
Three years ago (120222, “Sauce for the Gander”), I wrote about geopolitical spheres of influence with particular focus on China and Taiwan. I compared that situation with the two-hundred-year-old predecessor to the “Don-roe” doctrine recently revived in Caracas. I noted that, based on our own historical practice, we didn’t have much basis for criticizing the Chinese for effectively claiming a sphere of influence encompassing Taiwan and the South China Sea. I don’t have much to add to the general point made there, other than to note that we have a long history of military interventions in Latin America, often (as here) from commercial motives (on top of some convenient distraction from domestic economic challenges).
Beyond the obvious immediate problems of morality and international and domestic law arising from our kidnapping of Maduro and threats of coercion and control, our actions must make the Chinese feel smug about the implications for their freedom of action in their own backyard (even if we effectively pushed them out of our backyard); no to mention the Russians in their Ukrainian backyard.
More fundamentally, coupled with the latest sword-rattling over Greenland (see also 011025, “Baby, It’s Cold Outside”), Cuba, and Mexico, the Administration is actively proclaiming the return of realpolitik as the basis of US foreign policy. Unfortunately, their timing is all wrong and their other foreign policy actions seem to undermine this latest thrust. The timing is wrong because China is a rising power and the US is relatively falling (see 121820, “Rising and Falling Powers”). Rather than doubling down on military might, we should be seeking other modes of constraining China, not least of which is building stronger alliances with others similarly situated (Europe, India, Japan). The practice of realpolitik, however, also requires clear-headed thinking about our strength and clear-headed thinking is rare enough, especially with the JV foreign policy team currently running the show (see 120525, “You Can’t Go Home Again").
You read it here first.
[and now back to our regularly-scheduled program.]
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