The Climate Crisis

Climate change is the greatest existential concern facing the world today, potentially more dire than threats to democracy or the rise of Artificial Intelligence. It is an unprecedented emergency whose medium-term impacts (20-50 years) are likely to dwarf all other disasters faced by humanity over the past 5,000 years combined, including wars and pandemics. I am pessimistic about humanity's ability to cope with this challenge, highlighting deep-seated societal and political impediments.

The Nature and Urgency of the Climate Crisis

• Climate change is an "existential crisis". Its physical manifestations include storms, heat waves, droughts, and mass migrations, which are projected to lead to millions of deaths and widespread global distress. The impact on vulnerable populations, such as small island nations at risk of permanent immersion due to rising sea levels, is particularly severe, questioning their very existence as territorial states.
  
• Our current course (even before the latest round of back-tracking presents an "irreversible risk." Waiting another decade to act will only result in longer and deeper damage, leading to millions more deaths.
  
• Despite increasing awareness, the public consciousness of the problem's scale remains weak. The severity is often dismissed or denied due to psychological barriers, political motivations, and short-term thinking.
  
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Challenges to Addressing Climate Change

• Human Nature and Inertia:
  
  • Many intelligent people reject the idea of man-made climate change due to cognitive dissonance with its implications or a psychological need for a simpler, more manageable reality. This denial is akin to vaccine rejection or "stop-the-steal" sentiments.
    
  • There is considerable inertia in human social change. People are generally lazy when it comes to disrupting deeply ingrained habits of overconsumption and entitlement, and only take action when threats become dire and immediate, and "body-counts start mounting".
    
  • Societies, especially wealthy ones, are often geared towards immediate economic gains and material accumulation, making it difficult to prioritize long-term, abstract threats like climate change.
    

• Political Dysfunction and Ungovernability:
  
  • At a national level, most major democracies suffer from a "general crisis of ungovernability," characterized by political gridlock, lack of leadership, and an inability to implement radical, outside-the-box thinking. Governments are seen as unable to mobilize action at the necessary scale and pace. The US political system, with its split government and congressional sclerosis, is particularly highlighted as an impediment.
    
  • At a global level, international political systems are likewise unable to foster effective solutions. The current UN structure, for example, is critiqued for its dysfunction and lack of cohesion among leading members. American leadership in global climate efforts is indispensable, but will be absent at least for the next several years. The idea of spontaneous global coordination is a "pipe-dream".
    
  • The nation-state model, while the "fundamental mode of global political organization," often prioritizes national "honor" and sovereignty over collective global action. Nationalist opposition can override efforts to address global issues like climate.

• Economic Systems and Fixation on Growth:
  
  • Modern capitalism is a significant driver of the climate predicament due to its foundational premises of private property and markets and an epistemology centered on economics where "morals are secondary to money". 
    
  • The economic system has historically ignored the "real costs" of environmental degradation, such as clean air and water, treating them as "externalities". This flaw persists, with politicians who champion markets often opposing market-based solutions for carbon.
    
  • Part of the problem is due to our "fixation on growth” (often a substitute for compassion and justice).
    

• The "Moral Hazard" Argument:
  
  • This argument, applied to climate change, suggests that implementing solutions like geoengineering, renewable energy or carbon capture reduces the incentive for people to make fundamental behavioral changes.
    
  • I reject this approach, since it's based on an unrealistic "hope in human enlightenment" that lacks historical precedent. Instead, incremental progress and technological solutions should be embraced as they provide crucial transition time, and cutting them off preemptively would be the "real moral hazard".
    

• Interconnections with Other Global and Societal Issues
  
  • New migratory diasporas caused by climate change put pressure on existing social and political structures, potentially leading to new disputes and challenging traditional notions of territoriality.
    
  • The stark evidence of economic and social inequality, both within and between countries, undermines the place of moral arguments and highlights that the benefits of modern capitalism have disproportionately flowed to some, while others bear the costs. Rich countries are reluctant to provide "meaningful cash" for climate solutions, while poorer countries are disproportionately affected.
    
  • Public understanding of science is undercut by "delusional leadership" and media sensationalism, contributing to climate denial. The "scientific method" is based on tentative findings and constant revision, which is difficult for the public to grasp, and often leads to a preference for simpler, comforting narratives or conspiracy theories over complex scientific truths.
    
  • There are parallels between the current climate crisis and past historical events, such as Europe's appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s or the national response to COVID-19, Societies rarely get ahead of strategic challenges until they become dire and immediate. 
    

• Potential Solutions and Outlook
  
  • Radical Solutions: Incremental changes are insufficient given the crisis, we need "radical remedies" and "fundamental changes" to economic and cultural patterns. Alternately, we might strategically pause current climate efforts to conserve energy and funding for when the world is "readier to actually do something," focusing immediate policy efforts on entities already willing to act and designing implementable policy structures. This involves a "triage" of global issues, prioritizing existential threats over "merely godawful" ones.
    
  • Despite these dire projections, despair is not a necessary outcome. Humanity has historically shown resilience and an ability to reconstruct after disasters. Individuals need to "fortify [ourselves] and figure out what is really essential" to cope with the overwhelming nature of the modern world.