The 20th Century

The 20th century has been defined by profound ideological struggles in international relations; a multi-act drama between communism, fascism, and liberal democratic capitalism, ultimately concluding with the latter’s triumph. Here’s how I look at all this:

• World War I
  
  • WWI was a turning point that "drove Europe off the cliff," leading to the exhaustion of European elites and the disintegration of their worldview of progress. It eviscerated the romanticized view of technology, power, and culture, and highlighted the fragility of what had been built.
    
  • The war undermined European self-confidence and exposed the financial and psychological strain on imperial governments, increasing awareness among colonial populations of their exploitation for imperial purposes.
    
  • The barbarity of the war shattered European claims to cultural superiority that had justified their "civilizing mission" in Asia and Africa. Propaganda efforts during WWI attempted to portray the "Hun" as evil and the attack on Belgium as a "rape," with Wilsonian rhetoric framing the conflict as a crusade for democracy; Wilson was quite racist and Belgium had been “raping” the Congo for decades.
    
  • Despite arguments from figures like Ivan Bloch about the economic irrationality of inter-European war due to increasing interdependence, these warnings were dismissed, contributing to the war's outbreak. The war's end saw the demise of four empires—German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman—and was fought in the older terms of "liberal democracies" versus "stale monarchies".
    

• World War II
  
• WWII has been "easily cast in stark Manichean terms" of good versus evil. This was largely due to the "manifest crimes" committed by the Axis powers and the effective propaganda campaigns by the Allies. This dichotomy included racist stereotypes against the Japanese.
  
• Echoing the collapse of 1914, the onset of WWII demonstrated that "progress" is not linear, as few in 1925 or 1935 predicted the scale of the conflict to come.
  
• From a strategic standpoint, WWII was largely won by air and naval forces, logistics, and supply chain interruptions, rather than solely by ground battles. The destruction of German factories and Japanese supply lines proved more decisive than famous ground engagements. The Soviet Union, through the Battle of Stalingrad in 1943, played an indispensable role in terms of sacrifice, firepower, and strategic impact on the Eastern Front, which marked a major turning point in the European war.
  
• Post-WWII planning in the US began early, recognizing the failures of the post-WWI Versailles process and leading to the development of international organizations like the UN. These plans often served domestic propaganda purposes and, while seeking a new status quo, reality often diverged from the initial paper plans.
  

• The Cold War
  
  • The Cold War is deeply "drenched in ideology and existential animosity," primarily between the US and the Soviet Union, amplified by the looming threat of nuclear annihilation.
    
  • The "realpolitik" approach of figures like Henry Kissinger was shaped by a strong anti-communist stance.
    
  • While characterized by less direct military engagement between the superpowers, the Cold War maintained a high level of military and economic competition. The collapse of the Soviet Union and its empire, attributed to its "internal contradictions" and the inability of a bureaucratic economy to match capitalist dynamism, marked the end of this ideological struggle and led to Francis Fukuyama's proclamation of the "end of history".
    

• International Relations and the Nature of War
  
  • The conceptualization of the individual and ideas of international cooperation, emerging from the 19th century, have played a global role, influencing concepts like human rights. "Soft power," derived from mass media and public opinion, gains motivational force, compelling countries to at least pay "lip service" to ideals like democracy and morality. However, this "moral capital" can easily be spent or lost, as seen with Israel and South Africa.
    
  • The Realist school of international relations posits that power (military and economic) is paramount, with morality and ideologies being secondary or inconsequential in state behavior. Despite claims of moral high ground, external perspectives often reveal the conflicts, compromises, and shortcomings inherent in the exercise of power.
    
  • Formal empires, characterized by direct territorial control, are expensive and problematic in the modern, globalized world, leading to their decline in the mid-20th century. Informal empires, which exercise economic and cultural influence without direct territorial rule, have largely replaced them. The US has a long history of informal economic and cultural imperialism.
    
  • The concept of the nation-state, rooted in ethnic/cultural coherence and territoriality, gained prominence in the 19th century as a "waystation" against globalization, but its "fetishization" has led to instability and oppression of minorities in the 20th and 21st centuries.
    
  • The nature and practice of warfare has evolved over millennia and continues in new directions. Economic sanctions and cyber attacks are new forms of coercion that blur the line of what constitutes "war". Still, war, particularly in its industrialized and bureaucratic forms, often makes no rational economic sense and can be triggered by a form of "national insanity". Western powers often decry atrocities committed by others but fail to intervene due to their own historical inaction or guilt, or limitations on their ability to effect change.
    

Historical assessments of wars are dynamic and depend on when they are made, with judgments changing over time and influenced by contemporary concerns. Historians strive to interpret events without present-day values, but acknowledging the limits of "truth" and causation in historical analysis is crucial. Historical analogies, while common, are often of limited value for predicting future events due to unique contexts and contingencies.