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WSC

12/27/2024

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Last month marked the 150th anniversary of the birth of Winston Churchill, one of the most notable personages of the 20C and certainly among the most interesting. I’ve been a Churchill fan for some time and have done some deep dives into his biographies, scholarly work, a gaggle of movies and tv shows, and some of his own (copious) writings. He was remarkable, complex, elitist (racist?), courageous, bull-headed, idiosyncratic, a greater orator, an influential historian, a political chameleon, and an important statesman. His He did enough interesting things that even if he had died at 65 and hadn’t been Prime Minister twice and led the fight against the Nazis, he would have had a pretty amazing life.

I was thinking of him the other day because a TV show featured a scene set at Blenheim Palace where he was born, the eldest son of the third son of the seventh Duke of Marlborough. The first Duke, John Churchill, was a major statesman and military commander at the end of the 17C (the palace is named for the site of his most famous victory).

The principal biography runs eight (hefty) volumes. His Wikipedia entry runs about 25,000 words, so my thousand-word blog posting can only hit a few points and angles. Similarly, his Wikiquotes page runs even longer. For persons who lived during WWII, recordings of his speeches remain indelibly etched. Reading them now, or even hearing recordings don’t do his speeches justice. For that, we need to feel the moment and the context; it’s hard to do. Still, he did have quite a few bon mots.

For students of empire, geopolitics or either World War he remains an essential figure. His longevity (more than sixty years as a member of Parliament, eleven different Cabinet offices stretching across more than fifty years) makes him unique among world political figures. There are plenty of leaders who have dominated their second-, third-, and fourth-class countries for more than two decades. He, along with Stalin, Mao, Nehru, and De Gaulle were the only ones who bestrode the world stage for such a lengthy period. WWI, WWII, and the creation of the post-war world made the mid-20C a unique period and we are unlikely to see such giants again (although Putin is making a run for this rank!). American Presidents are usually not so noteworthy before they take office, nor influential thereafter. It’s hard to imagine a lot of interest in Coolidge, Truman, Carter, or either Bush (even FDR!), if they had never sat in the White House. Nixon, who had a significance well before he was President and some sort of highly-marred senior statesman status afterwards, may be the exception.

Churchill’s leadership of the British Empire during WWII has ensured his hagiographic status. WWII generally was good for that sort of thing; much more black-and-white than other conflicts. His fans can make a pretty case for his indispensability at this turning point in modern history; a strong argument for the “great man” theory of history. It is left to historians to chip away at the statue. He was born at the height of the British Empire and remained stuck in the mentality of superiority and power well after the rest of the world was moving on to more democratic and less discriminatory modes. Ironically, it was this deep attachment to (his vision of) the Empire allowed him to evoke it both in speeches and in recruiting the increasingly independent Dominions to yoke themselves once again to the defense of the Mother Island. At the same time, it seems clear that he valued Indians, Africans, and other colonial peoples less than whites.

He was also known for his ‘realpolitik’ view of the world, hating Communism but striking an alliance with Stalin in the face of the greater danger of Nazidom and regretting the loss of British power that made it necessary to divvy up all of post-war Europe (famously scrawled on the back of a napkin, passed over to Stalin, who wrote a check mark on it and the deal was done) into spheres of influence divided by what he later famously described as “an iron curtain.”

Churchill made his living as a writer, initially as a journalist, later as a public speaker and politician and as the author of massive sets on his great ancestor, and each of the two world wars. He was fully conscious of his role in history and made clear his intent to ensure that he would be well regarded—by writing it himself! He was pretty successful in this, laying down narratives which—if not mythic—were at least well-bolstered in a favorable view of his actions and those of the British “race.” After the War, everyone was trying to honor him. The Nobel gang in Stockholm couldn’t very well give the Peace Prize to such a war leader, so they gave him the Literature medal instead. I mean, really!? His books are pretty good, after a fashion, but…

In his second term as PM (1951-55) he was increasingly out-of-touch, but rode the tide of post-war adulation even to the point of hiding from the public for six months the fact that he suffered a stroke. He passed the baton to Anthony Eden, his loyal lieutenant for more than two decades even though he suspected that Eden was not up to the job as PM. He faded in his eighties, now out of office and rarely even in the House of Commons.

I have a vague recollection of awareness of his death in 1965 at the age of 90 (I was 11). He was the only non-Royal to have a State Funeral in the 20C and the great loading cranes along the docks dipped as his funeral barge rode up the Thames towards Blenheim.

Oh, he also loved to paint watercolors and drink champagne. Quite a guy.


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Hardball

12/20/2024

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I have to say that I was appalled and disappointed in Biden’s decision to pardon his son. It undermined his (and the Dems’) claim to devotion to the rule of law, a principle which is as much under threat as it has ever been in our Republic. It was also self-serving, bad politics, and strengthened the argument (made here previously) that the Dems and Biden in particular have not been so much worthy of enthusiastic support as they have been marginally more attractive than the GOP and HWSNBN.

Providing insulation for those who have already been named on the latter’s hit list (e.g., Mayorkas, Jack Smith, Gen. Milley) would at least have been principled, as well as saving us all a lot of distraction and money.

The incipient attack on democratic norms, however, is robust and extensive. I will not rehearse the list here (due to my weekly word limits). Still, I had to laugh (mordantly) when the NYT breathlessly advised us that the plan to populate the senior positions of government through the use of recess appointments and elbow the Senate out of the picture posed a “test” of the Republican majority’s integrity, independence, and institutionalism. Even with Mitch McConnell now sitting in the back rows, this is a group with the collective moral backbone of a seasick turnip.

While some of the members go out of their way to praise the capabilities and leadership of such luminaries as Kash Patel (FBI Director-designate), Pete Hegseth (Defense), and Dr. Oz (Medicare), there are only a few rumblings of dissent. But who can expect much of Susan Collins (R-ME) even if she acknowledged that she was burned by the Brett Kavanaugh appointment to the Supreme Court, much less ex-football coach Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) whose acumen seems to bear the effects of too many head-butt tackles.

It's sad to think that the only thing holding back the Administration and the Senate is… (no, it’s not the House of Representatives, that stalwart defender of democracy, nor the ostrich-like Supreme Court), … the future. That is to say, it’s the vague sense that just perhaps the Dems might win an election in the future and pull the same shenanigans. With such a precedent in place, even if the GOP were to retain control of the Senate (not a long shot given the considerable distortions built into our Constitutional system), with such dubious tactics as “recess appointments” they might not be able to prevent the left-wing/Commie/Socialist apocalypse: President-elect Buttigieg could name AOC to the DOJ, Liz Cheney to Defense, and Gavin Newsom to Treasury. Gasp!

Here’s where the beauty of the Biden/Biden pardon comes in. Could it be read as a signal that the Dems are actually ready to play hardball, down-in-the-dirt politics? They have been hung up for so long on “doing the right thing for the country,” that they let the GOP and HWSNBN sneak in (twice!!) and trash things. Say what you will about how Mitch McConnell stiff-armed the Merrick Garland nomination to the Supreme Court in 2016, it was brutal and effective. The Dems wrung their hands and fumed, but to no avail. Now, here comes Joe saying, “I’m going to give my son a get out of jail free card, just like the next President will pardon the January 6 gang and appoint his daughter’s father-in-law (a convicted felon… (hmmm, echo, echo)) as Ambassador to France and his son’s ex-girlfriend as Ambassador to Greece. So, take that. And when we get back in (as we will) you can count on us pulling the same manipulations and contortions to get back at you.” Think of Nancy Pelosi’s toughness without the commitment to democratic norms.

The Dems have been pretty limp on this front for a long time. The most recent example is the non-weaponization of the judicial process to get at HWSNBN once he was out of office last time. While a battery of legal cases were eventually mounted, they were late and lackadaisical in their scope and timing. Remember all the hullaballoo around his taxes? Was anything ever done—either in terms of audit or prosecution? Did all these “smart” prosecutors play out the highly predictable delay tactics used by the (often pretty lame) defense counsel? Why couldn’t Fani Willis in Georgia keep herself above suspicion during that prosecution? Only one case got to verdict and even that was spun out so that NY State will have to wait until 2029 for justice. I guess it’s true that the Dems are not tough on crime!

The pardon may be too subtle a signal for the incoming Administration and their henchpersons. It's a stretch to credit them with a coherent strategy and the capacity for long-term thinking. That’s a pretty tough sell, given the half-baked, “tear-it-all-down” attitude of many in that group. They have shown little attention to the long-term implications of their policies and priorities other than a certain (dys-?)utopian imagining of triumphalism over China, ungrateful Europeans, and troublesome “countries of color.” Domestically, they’re focused on a Christian nation that’s socially in the 1950s and technologically in the 2050s.

As I have noted before, the Dems have their own versions of party dysfunction. They have a major positioning/messaging challenge. They have yet to show a focus on winning and a hard-nosed realpolitik approach that the other side has mastered. For all their nominal concern with children, education, climate, and social justice, there is little of existential angst that seems to underlie and motivate the current batch of “conservatives.”

It would be nice to imagine that Joe’s pardon of Hunter was a signal that the Dems are waking up, but I think it’s just a tawdry tale of familial protectionism by someone who is well past his “best by___” date.

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Fuhgeddaboudit

12/13/2024

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The US election seems like a rather large nail in the coffin of efforts to combat climate change on a global basis. Hovering somewhere between denial and dismissal, the President-Elect’s disregard for inconvenient science, friendliness to crony capitalism, and solipsism makes engaging in fundamental long-term changes in our economy and culture no more likely than Putin turning tail in Ukraine or Bobby Jr. chugging corn syrup.

It's not that the Dems were really stepping up to the plate, but some efforts were made and little active damage was done. Many nice words, some programs and money, and lots of good intentions (and we all know where that road leads). When measured against what we’re going to see over the next four years, there are dramatic differences. When measured against what is needed to minimize the storms, heat waves, droughts, mass migrations, and general global distress, the Dems are only marginally better.

Nor is there much inspiration to be found overseas. A general crisis of ungovernability afflicts most major democracies, the big developing countries (Brazil, Indonesia, India, Pakistan, Nigeria, South Africa, Turkey, Argentina (in no particular order) remain hooked on catching up with the rich West even if they had the financial and political means of reordering their societies. China is facing its own development pressures as well as geopolitical conundrums and wrestling with the contradictions of a “communist” party trying to direct the world’s largest economy. Russia is preoccupied with its war of attrition against Ukraine. Europe (whatever that means) is trying; but its lack of cohesion and a host of problems in its leading members doesn’t bode well for global leadership. Among the many ironies of the current geopolitical situation is the indispensability of American leadership at a time of a distinct isolationist turn in our domestic politics.

As a result of all this, the recent UN meeting in Baku (COP29) which was supposed to see serious and specific commitments of cash to address the myriad schemes for climate abatement and adjustment has proved to be a bust. Ditto for similar UN meetings on species preservation and the proliferation of plastics. Scads of well-meaning and hard-working people without much power issued hundreds of proposals and statements to little avail. Fortunately, with modern technology, many fewer trees were felled to provide the paper on which these pleas would have been printed. One such initiative proclaimed the commitment of a group of countries to maintain their climate leadership by promising to stay “carbon-negative.” This “G-Zero” group includes countries comprising less than one-half of one percent of global population and one-sixth of one percent of global GDP. It’s a start, I guess.

Perhaps we should stop. Stop the wheel-spinning and hand-wringing and crying in the (ever diminishing) wilderness. Stop pretending that sound scientific analysis, dark scenarios, technological and policy creativity, and earnest and noble striving to save humanity from the road it has been on for the past several hundred years is really getting anywhere.

There is, in the historical record, little evidence that any society has gotten out ahead of its strategic challenges. We needn’t look much further than our national response to COVID (and whatever the next pandemic will be) or European appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s. As a historian, I’m hard pressed to come up with some meaningful counterexamples. And these were threats faced by more-or-less homogeneous groups of people; the prospect of spontaneous global coordination and effective implementation of policies is a pipe-dream. It’s not until threats become dire and immediate and body-counts start mounting that most folks will take action. Wet-bulb heat deaths in the millions or mass famine may do it, but a few hundred storm victims—even in North Carolina—is only noise in the system.

We might think of it in terms of basic economics: supply and demand. People buy things because they meet a need (real or induced). They “buy” ideas because those ideas meet psychological needs: resolving fear, responding to anger, inspiring hope, expressing compassion, satiating hunger/greed/insecurity. In this case there’s not much “demand” for ideas about the climate crisis. There’s plenty of supply, but much has been expressed in terms of the pain of adjustment from traditional economies and cultural patterns or the fear of distant future catastrophe. Folks aren’t buying, however. Rather than doubling-down on the “advertising budget,” perhaps we might keep our powder dry and wait until there’s more demand for information/policies.

If this were a military campaign, with an integrated command structure and coherent strategy, someone in the general staff could assess the prospect of over-extended salients and the risk of ineffectively re-supplying a column with little prospect of short-term success. A senior commander could decide that burning through their troops and ammunition wasn’t worth it and call for a strategic retreat until better battlefield conditions obtained and shift forces to fronts where real progress could be made. But the effort to minimize climate catastrophe is made up of hundreds of governmental groups, thousands of independent private organizations, and millions of individuals. Everyone means well, but no one is in charge. It’s a bit like the British General Staff on the Somme in WWI, “once more into the breech, fellows” and all that. The result is wasted resources and strategic chaos.

We used to joke that my Dad, when visiting a foreign country, would try to overcome the language barrier by speaking English…LOUDER. The environmental movement is doing the same thing. Those who are persuadable by science already get it. Those who don’t (for a range of reasons) can’t be convinced, but all the enviros do is trot out new evidence and pleas because that’s the only language they speak.

If I can just float an idea for mulling over: I’m not suggesting that we give up completely and permanently, but I’d rather have the energy and funding available when the world is readier to actually do something—likely just a few years hence.

For those who take the climate threat seriously, rather than spending all this time and money on plans to fix the problem in the next five years (or, at least, put us on the right track) maybe a different tack is in order. As with the domestic political situation, there’s a real risk of exhaustion/burnout. In the short term, let’s limit our policy efforts to 1) political entities that have shown a willingness to take meaningful steps and 2) designing policy structures that can be implemented when societies and governments are ready. Let’s put grand schemes for carbon markets on the shelf and stop pretending that rich countries are really going to put up any meaningful amount of cash in the short term. At the same time, we can continue with (indeed expand on) nature-based solutions and programs for resiliency and adaptation.

Earnestness is not enough. It's frustrating (and scary), but those aren’t reasons to spin the wheels faster and expend more of our limited resources on butting our heads against the wall. Let’s focus on areas that can have real effect and save some of our energy for a time when the world is ready to deal with its (by then darker) reality.

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Walking to Constantinople

12/6/2024

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The passing last month of Arthur Frommer, whose “Europe on $5 a day” was a bible among a certain set of mid-century Americans marked the radical shifts in the nature and practice of travel in the 20C, particularly in Europe, typically the first overseas stop for those adventurous enough. A strong dollar helped.

A richer contrast can be discovered, as I recently did, in reading the three travel memoirs of Patrick Leigh Fermor who, at the age of eighteen, undertook to walk to Constantinople. He set out in late 1933 and arrived at the end of 1934. He didn’t walk the whole way, but almost so.

The three books—A Time of Gifts, Between the Woods and the Water, and The Broken Road—were written decades later, based on notes, journals, and memories. They are charming, insightful, observant, and fun. They are remarkable documents in two ways. They capture the cultures and landscapes of Europe between the Wars and the distinctive perspective of a young Englishman. Fermor came from a comfortable if dysfunctional family situation, familiar with classics, history, and literature, a great ease with languages, and was a full claimant to that not yet post-imperial attitude with which the English still bestrode the world; a certain cosmopolitan provincialism, if I may put it that way. After all, Muslims had taken over the Christian city of Constantine over 500 years earlier, but it was still "Constantinople."

As a historian, I relished the exposition of cultures—a mix of sophisticated capitals and the most rustic peasantry—with clearly sketched national characteristics for each of the countries through which he walked: Netherlands, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Hungary, Czechoslovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, and Greece. (Curiously, there are no notes or presentation of his time in Istanbul.) It was a momentous time. The Great Depression was in full swing across the continent, the evidence of the Great War was at every hand. The Nazis had just been elected to power in Germany and were only just beginning to make clear what their dominion would entail. These major historical aspects are just at the fringes of the story, however. The focus is on the places Fermor walked and the individuals whose uniformly generous hospitality—lavish according to their station—eased his way across the continent.

Europe today, for all its nationalisms and particularities, is connected and not a little homogenized. This is not just a matter of ubiquitous consumer chain stores, hotels, and restaurants and electronic technologies, but also the common modernity of plumbing and roads, the loss of dialect, the sprawl of population and the increasing distance of nature from where most people live. Solitary Balkan mountain footpaths and scarcely attended German castles are harder to find these days. Cultures, too, have changed. Fermor’s hob-nobbing with the British Consul in Sofia or a Hungarian Count seems, from our distance, still tinged with an innocence.

But even more so is the sheer audacity of the expedition. Intermittent mails (including regular infusions of a few pound notes from home every month), occasional local phone calls to confirm arrangements, well-tattered fold-up maps and throughout a firm insouciance about routes and bedding signaled the romance of travel for a young man afoot. It’s about 1500 miles from the North Sea to the Black Sea (not counting innumerable detours). It was also 90 years ago, on the far side of 45 years of the Iron Curtain dividing Europe and the vast destruction of the Second War. It’s all a long way aways.
Since Fermor wrote all this up in his later years, it’s good that he left the temptations of hindsight to the fringes of his saga. It’s a constant challenge for the historian to leave the knowledge of what was to come next to the side and let the people have their own stories in their own time. He nods to the fact that many of his hosts and walking companions were lost—either due to the War, Communism, or the baseline passage of time, but it is a strength of the books that they leave such matters, as well as historical and other analytics to others while floating the faintest of dark shadows over those earlier times.

For one who didn’t really take to middle class English education, Fermor shows a remarkable affinity for and interest in classics and history. The travels are mixed in with extensive references to Crusades, Byzantines, the “Dark Ages,” as well as more recent developments. Byron, a variety of Romans, French and German writers, and English of course are liberally strewn across the pages. Fermor also showed a talent for languages picked up (beyond French) on the fly. This skill put him miles ahead (sometimes literally) in his travels and his ability to extract a sense of the locals, for many of whom England was not much more than a name.

The final point is that the entire trilogy is immensely rich in language. There are obscurities and allusions and other vocabulary builders. I didn’t get them all, but there seemed no need to be precise in my understanding; rather better to let the story carry me along.

This set of slim volumes is, in sum, fine evidence of the limitations of genre classifications. There’s lots of information, myriad impressions, tales (both first person and ‘as told to’), geography, history, sociology, anthropology, literature, adventure, and romance.

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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