Steve Harris
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  • Condemned to Repeat It

Uncharted Territory

10/25/2024

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“Uncharted territory” isn’t a new phrase, but it seems to be popping up in the media (social and otherwise) lately. Its increased frequency is a signal of the current social sentiment and a marked change from much of the last two hundred years.

Of course, everything about the future is “uncharted territory.” That’s the nature of the future. So, pointing this out about, e.g., elections, technology, economics, or your next new restaurant, can’t be the point of the phrase. Rather, it seems to imply a certain uneasiness about the likely outcome of current trends or developments. After all, the nature of modernity is, if not to know, then at least to feel the answer is known (by someone) or at least knowable by the ‘normal’ course of science and progress. Fixating on what we don’t know and filling in the gaps with speculation and semi-plausible theories provides apparent comfort that the world is known (or at least knowable) and therefore, manageable.

This explains a fair amount of the rush to “conspiracy theories” which have been popular for a long time and have surged of late. However ridiculous or skimpily grounded in “fact,” the presence of some explanation makes folks feel more in control of their world. As I have noted previously, this explains (from both the supply and demand sides) a fair percentage of the attraction of HWSNBN and his gang.

Underlying this anxiety about the future is a disorientation about the present: the pace and scope of change and, especially for embedded elites and those of “privilege” (even poor/working class white males), the bleak outlook for continued comfort, power, and achievement of the “American Dream.” Another way of putting it is that those with power, privilege, and expectations of continuity/stability have developed a psychological “entitlement,” whose overturning is upsetting and, for some, terrifying.

From a historical perspective, there are many modes by which people have sought to cope with anxieties about the future and other aspects of what is unknown/not understood. Traditional epistemologies—stretching back thousands of years and continuing to the present—have embraced mythology, religion, witchcraft, magic, and myriad hybrids to preserve their peace of mind. Much of this has faded in the face of modern science and its accompanying sense of confidence of knowability; but there are numerous outliers, whether geographic groups, particular beliefs, or modern manias.

The construction of more-or-less coherent (if frenzied) worldviews in which tulips (18C Holland) or cryptocurrencies (21C global) are a reliable store of value provide merely classic examples.

“Othering”—the definition of a group with some degree of difference from a core group of people has long provided a vehicle for explaining disruption and uncertainty. “Others” are inherently unknown and, therefore, suspect. Witches in 16-18C Europe are the template. In the modern world, nationalism and racism have been the frames for othering in which Roma, Jews, Blacks, and various peoples of color have taken their turn. Immigrants are always popular in this regard and they are “enjoying” a resurgence of blame across the 21C rich world, with ample precedents ranging from modern genocides to Orson Welles’ War of the Worlds broadcast in 1938.

All of this “normal” rationalization” would be problematic enough if ideas spread by word-of-mouth and incrementally across local populations at a rate determined by walking and talking. We have left that world far behind and the instantaneity of modern media—especially “social” media—has both accelerated the pace of distribution and reduced the reaction time by which we process the buzz which we hear. Any number of sites will give the appearance of fact and the implicit assurance of knowability. Common sense is given no time to breathe and react to the rumors and half-baked ideas which incessantly float our way. The more outlandish the idea/theory/“fact”, the more it sticks with us and becomes common nonsense. Analysis and “fact-checking” have little chance of keeping up.

This is more than just the product of technological advance. Another aspect of modernity is the parallel accumulation/snowballing of both knowledge and techne. One outcome is the hyperspecialization of knowledge and the need to rely on “experts” in particular fields. This used to enable most folks to push the bulk of information and knowledge to the side; i.e., we accepted that there was lots of stuff we could never know personally, but felt comfortable in relying on experts.

Now, the internet allows (pushes at us) access to all sorts of data and ideas which is, itself bewildering and often overwhelming, contributing to the disorientation noted above. The disintermediation of commerce and ideas has brought about great efficiencies and benefits, but the cost has been a sense of “drinking from a firehose,” with unpleasant and disruptive implications for psychological coherence.

This is not a quixotic plea for a return to “simpler times.” We are where we are. But we can be a bit more cognizant of the costs of speed and quantity and their impact on our personal and social “processing capability.”  When someone talks about “uncharted territory,” it’s good to ask whether they are 1) claiming expert status and asking for your reliance on their own speculations, 2) urging caution in assessing others’ predictions (a circumspect attitude likely pretty rare in our 21C media), or 3) just using the fear of the future to get your attention (but otherwise don’t have anything interesting to say).

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Mirage

10/18/2024

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Well, I’m back from my jaunt. I started writing this from high above the planet en route (non-stop 15+ hours) from Dubai to SFO. (I hope you got my interim posting (sent from the plane while near Moscow).

I spent just 2-1/2 days in Dubai and the adjacent Abu Dhabi after a couple of weeks in several spots in Africa. I’ll talk more about Africa later, but here are some impressions/reflections on a brief tourist stop in the United Arab Emirates.

While both Dubai and Abu Dhabi are rich oil emirates, they each have a different feel about them. Dubai seems more splurgy and chaotic, with little sense of city planning and cohesion. Bold and brash, the implicit motto is: “Go big or go home.” The world’s tallest building, immediately adjacent to a humongous mall, with dozens of other striking towers scattered about town. There’s no road grid, and no apparent reason why buildings are placed where they are. The resulting traffic patterns are bewildering and rush-hours can be quite severe.  Abu Dhabi, in contrast, seems more coherent in its layout; if no less overwhelming in grandeur.

Dubai first. About 3-1/2 million people, almost all expats (both elites and workers) with more 5-star hotels than New York. The place oozes money and freneticism. Bold architecture yes; but it’s all so new and ungrounded in culture and place. When I say “ungrounded” I recognize that there is a strong commitment to Arabian culture and Islam, but it seems more a framework for what is essentially a cosmopolitan conglomeration of people. It’s all new: the population now is 70 times what it was 60 years ago; the vast majority are laborers from various parts of Asia. There are about as many Westerners living there (mostly in pretty posh quarters) as there are native Dubaians. Economically, oil is now a small and diminishing source of revenue, most activity is focused on construction, trade, tourism, and finance.

I have to say a few words about the Dubai Mall, adjacent to the Burj Khalifa. 1200+ stores, including over 100 restaurants and just about every brand name you can think of—both high end and mundane—not to mention an aquarium and ice rink (there’s a snow skiing resort in another mall nearby). It gets about over 250,000 visitors every day. As we wandered this seemingly endless commercial cavern, we must have passed at least six outlets for Peet’s Coffee, and several Tim Horton’s (think Canadian, donuts). It says something that these North American franchise chains as well as a spread of European brands (I’m guessing several hundred of the total Mall store count) seem to generate enough value to be so prevalent. It can’t just be the Western tourists; Tim Horton advertises that they have over 300 outlets across the Middle East.

Whew! I’m exhausted just thinking about it (and the trudging over all those marble floors was hard on the feet). Btw, did I mention that the entire country is HOT (90+; it’s the desert after all). The place couldn’t work at all without air conditioning.
 
The next day, we took an Uber (ubiquitous and easy) about 90 miles to Abu Dhabi. Our first stop was the Grand Mosque, built in 2007, it’s also spectacular and a worthy successor to the great cathedrals of Europe. The publicly-stated construction cost was over $500M, but I think that’s well understated. My favorite “fun fact” about the Mosque is the carpet in the main sanctuary (room for 7000 worshippers), it’s over 60,000 square feet and took 1200 weavers two years to construct. We ended the day in another example of grandeur: the National Palace (aka Qasr Al Watan, completed in 2017), the latest imitator of the Palace of Versailles, but in a modern, Arabic, vernacular. It succeeds on many levels, including a central dome of over 120 feet in diameter and immense grounds and outbuildings. Indeed, after trooping through these public buildings and considering the residential and hotel spaces, it’s surprising there’s much marble left to be quarried in the world.

In between, we made two stops in the emerging cultural district, anchored by a branch of the Louvre. I liked the building and the curatorial theme: the universality of art. The collection was also quite good, even if the Paris Louvre didn’t send their best stuff (only one Rembrandt and one Leonardo). Then we visited the intriguing Abrahamic Center: an important gesture towards toleration, it includes a church, synagogue, and mosque, each of the exact same dimensions; together with a shared interpretative/cultural center. It was a useful reminder that Islam (like Judaism and Christianity) comes in many flavors and the simplistic image usually portrayed in the US dominated by “radical” Islam and violence is only one part of the story.

I will conclude this highly selective travelogue by noting that the title of this blog posting is: Mirage. Coming on the heels of visits to three countries in Southern Africa (each with their own range of modernity and wealth); there was something surreal about the whole stopover. The buildings are solid enough, the food was delicious, and the luxury was tangible (if transitory); but I came away with a sense that the UAE could easily enough float away.

Was it worth seeing? Yes, but I’m glad I capped it at two days. It’s a unique corner of the world and helped—especially in contrast to my African stops—to confirm the sense of value in travel: to open my eyes to the immense range of human difference and the stunning range of physical/environments which are spread around the globe. Travel is a great spark of imagination and a deep well of humility.

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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