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Into Africa

9/27/2024

I’m writing this from Johannesburg where I’m in the middle of a combination fun safari and nature/carbon research trip (with a stop-off in Dubai on the way home). Btw, I won’t be writing next week as a result.

I've been in sub-Saharan Africa twice before: six weeks in Nairobi in 1981 as the legal advisor to the US delegation to an international telecommunications regulatory conference. It was a great professional experience and we had some time to visit several stunning natural areas in Kenya. Then, in 2010, Gina and I went with friends to Namibia and South Africa, including some time in Cape Town. Also spectacular and all for fun.

This time, I've got five stops scheduled.

During my “jet lag day,” I managed one outing in town and went to the Constitution Hill section of Johannesburg, home of the Constitutional Court as well as several historical sites and museums about the struggle for democracy in South Africa. Having taught courses on the history of democracy several times (including several which featured the Mandela/South Africa story of the late 20C), this has long been of interest to me.

I’ve just finished meeting with the team at African Parks, an impressive organization that manages 22 national parks in 12 countries across the continent, covering more than 50 million acres. They secure long-term contracts with governments to stabilize and upgrade the management of these parks, including financial, operational, and environmental capabilities to enhance and preserve these amazing landscapes/environments. They also are managing a special project to re-wildÓ 2000 white rhinos (about 10% of the total global rhino population) by “seeding” them in groups to restore their original spread across Africa. Their staging area is outside Johannesburg and I got to visit with their team there as well as their HQ group in town.

Tomorrow, I’m off to Botswana with my friends Barry and Barbara, to visit two of the most important and dramatic natural areas in the world: the Okavango Delta and the Kalahari Desert. WeÕre doing the luxury tented-camp thing for the next week, which should be great fun as well as jaw-dropping in terms of scenery and animals. (Good thing I don’t mind (very) small planes!)

Then, its back to Joburg to change planes and hop up to Malawi, where I’ll be visiting African Parks operations in Majete National Park in the south of that country. Majete is the test-bed for a project to measure carbon sequestration and natural preservation across large swaths of territory with an eye to monetizing those “natural capital” benefits and securing funding from charitable donors and governments interested in off-setting climate change. Not surprisingly, donors want some assurance that their funds are being effectively used and AP is trying to provide a framework to do so. It’s a key piece of the organizational/conceptual infrastructure if we're to marshal the financial resources necessary to address this existential threat. I hope to see how this works in practice so I'm not just sitting 10,000 miles away writing checks in a vacuum.

From Malawi, I return to Joburg for another plane change leading to a couple of days in Dubai. I'll be linking up with my brother and his wife who are en route to India. Dubai is a bit of a mystery. The hype is a souped-up Las Vegas in Arabia, complete with the worldÕs tallest building, indoor skiing, deserts, and the remnants of old Arabian culture amid lots of flash and bling. WeÕll tour around Dubai and Abu Dhabi and check things out. Should be amusing in a hyper-modern 21C way, and a far cry from the groundedness of Africa.

Thence, home via a long flight from Dubai back to the Pacific Time Zone. Whew!

I’ll be bringing the perspective of a historian who has studied the European imperial impacts on the continent and taught students about how democracy returned to South Africa thirty years ago. I'll also be bringing with me a commitment to understanding the tensions of development, environmental protection, radically different cultures, and the peoples’ relationships with the land. Whether as a historian, environmentalist, tourist, traveler, or just plain human, I will bear in mind that I’m there to learn and get outside of my usual routine and perspectives. It’s not just physical baggage that I’m carrying.

When I taught a course on the history of globalization a few years ago, I started the story in Africa. Indeed, we all started our story in Africa, even if most of us here in the US descended from those who left Africa more than 50,000 years ago. In my experience, I can feel the resonance of home at a genetic level. Beneath the fun and the learning, it is good to be back.

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Journal of a Blog Year.4

9/20/2024

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The end of a fourth year of “Condemned to Repeat It” brings the opportunity to reflect back over what was on my mind this past year.

The start and surprises of the election campaign show up regularly in the blog this year, overcoming my usual reluctance to be “news” commenter. Whether in terms of domestic politics or more broadly or philosophically, I have tried to invoke historical connections and analogies in order to contextualize and complicate the facile references which characterize most general discussions. Particular historical subjects, issues, and angles have shown up throughout the year, including: the future, coins, polling, 20C wars, drugs, AT&T, the battle of Stalingrad, the Declaration of Independence, and demographics.

Indeed, whether from ordinary human laziness/lack of attention or political expediency or the ominous looming of AI capabilities, it seems that the commitment to truth that has characterized modern Western culture over the past few centuries is facing distinctive challenges. My historian friends will recognize this as the core of their job description. Alas, as my own situation attests, part of the current challenge is the abandonment of this stance on the part of those who fund and administer education in America. It’s a particularly bad time to defund the humanities, history, and critical thinking.

History as a discipline/practice/frame of mind was much in my mind, of course. We historians are way too stuck in our own history. If the broader society needs us more, we need to change both our attitudes and practices (and rather more radically than is our nature).

Personally, a 70th birthday and a (likely) career change were landmarks during the year and occasions for reflection and attempts at self-candor.

A full year of (I hope) interesting facts, arguments, observations, and ideas. Many were ephemeral, some seem to be prescient (so far) and all helpful to write and (I hope) to read. (Btw, they’re all easy to get to. Go to the column to the right, click on the appropriate month and scroll to the entry you want.)

Stick around for a fifth year! Please comment frequently and don’t forget that topic suggestions are always welcome!

Thx, smh

Date            Title                                            Topic
091523        Journal of A Blog Year.3          Review of the prior year
092223        Days of Future Past                     Even the Future has a history
092923        Change You Can Believe In        The past and future of money
100623        Election Time                    The charade of the primaries
101323        The End of History            The precariousness of a second career
102023        Modern Truth                    Reality isn’t what it seems
102723        Terrorism                          The distractive nature of labels
110323        Out of Control                 A self-delusion
111023        Ma Non Troppo                 A plea for moderation
111723        Timeframes                       History depends on how you frame it
112423        Vox Populi                        The (minimal) value of polling
120123        Going Deep                                        Figuring out deep fakes
120823        All the Causes We Cannot See              The futility of historical analysis
121523       Global Wars of the 20C                           Recasting recent geopolitical history
122223        Moral Hazard                                          The illusion of idealism
122923        Hostages                                                 The plight of the Palestinians (too)
010524        Central Bankers                                       The power of money
011224        The Break-Up                                Blowing up America’s largest corporation
011924        Alternatives                                              Other than Joe, other than Donald
012624        Reprieve                                                   Back in action in the classroom
020224        Unspoken Assumptions                  Why are historians afraid of psychology?
020924        Hard Choices                                        Pushing students to see themselves
021624        These Revolutions Were Not Televised    Don’t forget about ’48! (1848, that is)
022324        The World is Too Much With Us               Wordsworth and the modern plight
030124        Alias                                              Changing names doesn’t change feelings
030824        Froth and Fundamentals                          Parsing social change real time
031524        Moral High Ground                        The precariousness of self-righteousness
032224        No Straight Lines                                     Historical Progress is not linear
032924        Suffer the Children                                  Who actually cares about kids?
040524        Non Poll Tax                                           How to promote voting
041224        Drugs in History                                      A brief survey
041924        Mission for America            Thinking boldly about our future
042624        Nature of the State                      How and why do we organize our societies
050324        Life, The Universe, and Everything        A condensed version
051024        Stalingrad                         Lessons from a great battle and great story
051724        Wants and Needs                                  Telling the difference
052424        The Meaning of Truth       It’s not simple
053124        A Crook                                                  The courage of his conviction
060724        Cleaning Up                                           A duty and a compulsion
061424        The Struggle of the 20C              A different framework for three recent wars
062124        Tapestry                                                 Weaving a life
062824        Fences and Neighbors                          The benefits of boundaries
070524        The Pursuit of Happiness                      What Jefferson meant
071224        Eulogy                                                    Commemorating a life (so far)
071924        Labouring Away                                     The new British government
072124        A Whole New Ballgame                         Joe steps back
072624        Depowering History                                How the discipline needs to change
080224        Courting Trouble                                  The inadequacy of piecemeal reform
080924        Deck Chairs                                    The challenge of group decision making
081624        Money, Babies, and the Flag          A demographic trilemma
082324        Why Fight                                   The rationales for war
083024        Linguistic Empire                                    The triumph of English
090624        When Does History Become Ancient     The limits to analogy
091324        Price and Productivity                             Economic nonsense

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Prices and Productivity

9/13/2024

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It’s still too early to tell if the Federal Reserve has successfully tamed the latest (2021-24) bout of inflation and its apparent plan to start bumping up interest rates a bit may avoid a “hard landing” or a “recession.”

This era of rising prices scared a lot of folks. Inflation over last 3 years has averaged about 5%.
The last time it was over 4% was 1991, the last time it averaged over 5% was the great bulge from 1969 through 82. If people’s real experience of inflation doesn’t start until they’re 18 (i.e. their parents dealt with it, but the awareness for teens was pretty small) then about 2/3 of the population today doesn’t really remember even the 1991 bump and less than a quarter of the population dealt with the great bulge.

So, granting the usual adjustments for fading memories from 30-55 years ago, our society had pretty much forgotten what it was like to face the disorientation of shifting prices. We had gotten pretty used to price changes being isolated by sector (gas, real estate) and overall levels only nudging up by what seemed to be small and tolerable increments. In other words, prices were a source of general psychological stability.

A burst of general inflation knocks all that off-kilter. It makes it hard to figure out what’s worth what. I, for one, felt regular sticker shock going to the market where a pack of sausages moved from $3.99 to $5.99. (You will have your own examples.) Here in San Francisco, restaurant prices have moved similarly: a $30 steak dinner is now $40, and a plate of pasta goes for $25-30. Ouch!

In every such situation, every consumer asks: “Is it worth it?” (Relatively-) stable prices make it easier to make that assessment. When I go to that restaurant, I gasp/gag and try to wrap my head around the menu prices. Perhaps I’m just stuck in my memories of past prices, where a hamburger should be $1.95 (ok, …$4.95) not today’s $15/$18/$22.

At least a hamburger is (pretty much) a hamburger; if we leave to the side the fact that we now get a “brioche bun,” organic beef, and aged cheddar, instead of the classic bun and a slice of Kraft “American” cheese.

There is another aspect of inflation that is a bit more buried and hard to parse out. It shows up more in technology-driven products, but it really permeates many things that are purchased and consumed at ever-higher prices, but which actually deliver more value than before.

Take cars. The average price of a new car this year is about $49k. It was about $30k in 2012 and well under $10k when I got my first new car in 1976. Has car inflation gone up 800% in that 48 year period? Or, should I consider the improved gas milage? Reduced maintenance costs? Vastly improved safety features? Not to mention the comfort/entertainment bells-and-whistles. If we think of the car not just as a car, but as a transportation service provider, the fact that I can go many more miles without worrying about an accident or break-down is worth a fair amount, but that increased value doesn’t show up in the inflation figures.

This phenomenon of greater value/productivity shows up in lots of place, but it’s most visible in high-tech. In 1984, the price of a Mac was $2500 (that was the year of the famous Apple Orwellian advertisement). It was clunky (remember floppy disks!), slow, and its (then) breakthrough speed and storage now seem pathetic compared with today’s iMac with a 24” screen, 2Tb of storage and a gazillion apps that costs…$2500. The difference is not just that nominal inflation means that we’re now paying about 40% of what we paid before, but we’re getting so much more (not to mention reliability and ease of use). So, what is inflation anyway?

The Labor Department, which produces the inflation statistics for our economy (the Consumer Price Index or “CPI”), does make some modification for this—kind of. It’s called the “hedonic quality adjustment” and it bakes into the numbers the physical changes driven by technology (“Gee, all TVs now have a “picture-in-picture” feature, and that’s worth something, so the nominal inflation is a tad less.”) The problem with this is that its mechanical and material; it still doesn’t reflect benefits like peace of mind about the quality of car tires or your phone’s ability to track your children.

Jumping out from this micro-economic example, we can ask the same type of question about productivity and value at the societal (macro-economic) level. What consumers value change and the capabilities and effects of products and services change; yet economists value their continuous series of data that ignore attributes that cannot be reduced to a numerical/financial parameter. The media jump on easy to communicate numbers and we all “consume” this data to assess whether we are better or worse off. Economists pretend that their models capture a “real” picture of society. Policies get made, production and hiring and spending decisions get made, people vote—all based on these (what can only kindly be called) “fictions.”

“There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” –attributed to Mark Twain, who attributed it to Disraeli.

“Any firm that hires an economist has one employee too many.” –attributed to Warren Buffet.

We may all perhaps be forgiven for being lost in this “Alice-in-Wonderland” portrayal of the state of the world. We’re all well indoctrinated into the culture of social science and its epistemology. We take comfort from the apparent certainty of numbers and the stack of Ph.D.s behind them. It seems like it’s off twelve ways from Sunday. How to make sense of it all? I wish I knew. Is that $22.95 organic/brioche burger really worth at that café ten times a McDouble burger from the Golden Arches “Dollar Menu” today? Is it worth 70 times the 28¢ it cost to get a McD’s burger in 1974? We don’t need the conspiracy theorists and tin-hat crazies to be at least aware of what we’re being fed.

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Ancient History

9/6/2024

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I recently read two books by Charles Maier, the venerable Harvard historian on the nature of the modern state. They were, to be frank, rather disappointing; but they reminded me that he had written a perceptive piece twenty-five years ago, as his inaugural lecture when he became President of the American Historical Association. It was called “Consigning the Twentieth-Century to History,” and it raised a range of questions about how historians work and what to do with the era that had just ended, including periodization, documentation, ideologies, and various frameworks that could be used to examine the preceding hundred years.

Beyond these particularities, however, the premise of Maier’s essay was that he staked a claim on the 20C as now (when he wrote in the year 2000) being fair game for historians; it had moved from the domain of current events to that of the past. It’s a perennial question for those of us who work in “modern” or “contemporary” history: what is in our bailiwick and what is not yet ripe? The risk with applying historical analysis to events that happened a year or a decade or half-a-century earlier is that “it’s too early to tell.” The events in question are still ramifying, the archives of are still under seal, and we’re not quite sure whether the questions we ask are really the important ones. We certainly don’t want to be accused of “journalism” (gasp!). We need some distance to gain some useful perspective on the past.

A different, if parallel, problem arises at the earlier end of this historical period. There is a commonplace phrase: “That’s ancient history” which we use to, in effect, consign (relatively) recent events to a murky and ignorable past. It’s a call to forget what actually happened, let “bygones be bygones,” and concentrate on more (apparently) relevant topics. In other words, this “ancient history” is worthy of study only by specialists (e.g., Mughal India, the spread of gunpowder, stories from the Roman Senate, domestication of chickens in prehistoric Anatolia), but for the rest of us, we just want a high-level summary; usually, textbook-type coverage will suffice.

I recently faced this problem in preparing an upcoming set of lectures for next year that I call “A World History Overview.” My challenge is to cover the history of the world—everything from the Big Bang onwards—in twelve class hours. As someone who has specialized in the last 250 years, I am naturally biased toward the more recent end of the total 14.5 billion year period, so even if we had better archival documentation for the first 14,499,995,000 years, I wouldn’t spend too much time on the really, really early stuff. Fortunately for me, there are plenty of folks who have written insightful and fun discussions of the next 4,500 years that I can digest and present in the course and I’ve got a decent handle on the last little bit.

No, the real problem arises in figuring out how to take the “modern” era (i.e., since 1500 or so) and present a coherent package of themes and stories across six class hours. In other words, can I (and, if so, how do I) take a bunch of “modern” stuff, including the Scientific “Revolution,” the Industrial “Revolution,” and the American and French Revolutions and turn them into “ancient” history? Do I do the same for the American Civil War and the Russian Revolution? The global emergence of nationalism? What about the transformation of weaving technology into the basis for modern computing or the many influences of global empires on their European metropolitan (cosmopolitan?) cultures?

Good history not only needs to tie the period and themes under discussion to their broader context and their “before-and-after,” it needs to show how individuals and particularities add up to and connect with the broad developments, trends, and events—up to the present day. When stuff moves to the “ancient” history category, it seems like a lot of this detail/local color/human connection gets lost. Part of this is due to the inherent pressures of editing and compression. Even if History could produce the “truth,” there’s no way for us to produce the “whole truth,” and certainly not in just a few hours.

On the other hand, as I have noted elsewhere, we need to be wary of facile parallelism with historical events. The earlier we go, the more difference there is between our world and theirs. Sometimes the differences are tangible (the authors of the 2d Amendment sought to protect the right to bear “arms,” but they didn’t have ICBMs, so how far does that constitutional right go these days); sometimes the differences are more ephemeral (the nature of work, gender, and health are all radically different now than 200/800/2,000 years ago).

By “consigning” any period to ancient history, we are doing three things. First, we are emphasizing the limited nature of historical analogy, second, we are recognizing the practical limitations on the bandwidth available for study and consideration by contemporary readers/students, and finally, as a result of both, we are taking a philosophical stand on whether contemporary society should spend its time on such matters. The loss of this “ancient” past not only frees us of false analogies, but also propels us forward; insisting that there is more to learn from the present than dwelling on the past. Recently (062824), I cited the 19C French thinker Ernst Renan for the proposition that an implicit shared act of forgetting is an essential part of building a modern nation. However, his point goes beyond that particular frame; whether at a personal or societal level we put our present and our future at risk by fantasizing about the past and trying to rectify whatever errors and insults occurred. In 1914, the Serbians marked their national day—from 525 years earlier—by assassinating the Austrian Archduke. As if….

So, there is a role for “ancientizing” History. We have to and should let more and more of it slip away. We have to become ever more selective about the increasing amount of history that we have (it’s piling up day-by-day) and figuring out the parts that remain essential.

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Into Africa

Journal of a Blog Year.4

Prices and Productivity

Ancient History

Condemned to Repeat It --
Musings on history, society, and the world.

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Into Africa

Journal of a Blog Year.4

Prices and Productivity

Ancient History

Condemned to Repeat It --Musings on history, society, and the world.

Archives

Sign up for alerts when there's a new post

Condemned to Repeat It --
Musings on history, society, and the world.