Steve Harris
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Carbon Rainbow

4/25/2025

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I remain convinced that climate change is the greatest concern facing the world today, more dire than the threats to democracy or the rise of AI. Long-time readers are aware of my priority on tree-planting and other nature-based solutions (“NBS”) to the crisis. Even without the sharp reversals in policy and attitude by the current Administration, changing human behaviors and public policies (including mandatory comprehensive carbon markets) on a world-wide basis will only occur once the impact—storms, famine, heat waves—starts killing millions of people. Those focused on voluntary carbon markets are doing good work, but their scope is small and  (as we’ve seen lately in the US political contexts) voluntary corporate commitments to carbon are ephemeral and politically vulnerable.

It's a daunting prospect. Motivating people to take steps in the short-term that will only have the benefit of mitigating (not preventing) these disasters in decades to come is a challenge in any case. The many well-meaning people who “get” the climate crisis are trying to connect and energize broader swaths of the population to take steps to make a difference, but far more is needed. We need the marketing/advertising masters who have promoted our consumer culture to put their insights and inspiration to a more meaningful cause than selling dishwashing detergent or ginning up audiences for “The Real Housewives of South Podunk.” Again, I’m not talking about campaigns to change behavior (reducing power usage, recycling, etc.) or promoting legislation for carbon markets; I’m focused on means to work with nature to avoid the release of carbon or lock up more of it in the natural world around us. NBS can, by reasonably reliable estimates, handle about 1/3 of the world’s carbon problem over the next few decades and make a real difference in the world of the mid-21C.

We need to make carbon fun/engaging/interesting (or at least as fun as possible given the context). The story can’t just be scientific reports and tables of data. That’s not how you sell tortilla chips or athletic shoes and it won’t work with this tougher item. We need catchy phrases, punch lines, and (probably) some adorable creature/mascot.

As one trained in the law and in history, I claim no great skill set in this regard. However clever I might be at word-play and cultural allusions, I have no illusions about my “common touch.” But, since it’s “all hands on deck” for the climate crisis, here’s one way to think about carbon sequestration.

There is a wide range of environments in which nature can contribute to solving the carbon problem. I think of it as a “carbon rainbow.”  I got the idea from the “Blue Carbon” deals which the Nature Conservancy (and others) have done with an increasing list of small and less-developed countries in which commitments are made to preserve/extend/protect ocean and lake areas in return for a reduction/rescheduling of the country’s existing public debt load. Then I thought about the various other modes of reducing/storing carbon. The “green” leaves of trees, the “brown” of peat bogs, the “yellow” of grasslands, the “black” of coal/oil,

My initial engagement in this area was in planting trees. Several groups raised funds by offering to plant a tree for a fixed amount. I quickly noticed that the cost to plant in the US was much higher than overseas and, focused on getting the biggest carbon “bang for the buck,” I got involved with several groups in this regard. Some of them also worked with consumer-oriented businesses and offered to plant a tree if you bought a jar of their product or similar schticks. This model had the advantage of being consumer friendly—allowing ordinary folks to participate in the climate-solutions process. However, they had the disadvantage of mis-characterizing the nature of the climate solution. Trees involve much more than planting. They need to be sustained over decades and the “dollar-a-tree” model doesn’t really work. Most of these groups have moved to a less-specific model, raising funds for projects, but in less discrete bites.

So, there’s a gap. We need simple-to-understand programs to connect with ordinary folks at the “small bite” level. In the US, the “Arbor Day Foundation has been working this angle for decades, but needs a real ‘juice-up.’One idea in this regard is to adapt a program that was effective back in the 1960s: the UNICEF milk-carton program by which school kids would raise money for UNICEF by collecting small change in a small orange milk carton when we went around “trick-or-treating” at Halloween. In addition to its financial benefits, this program was quite effective at raising awareness of UNICEF with both children and adults and gave children the opportunity to participate directly in a public-service program. Today, with QR codes and “Go Fund Me” similar programs are digitized, but the underlying public awareness campaign is lacking.

As long as the solutions advanced are macro and distant from daily life and contact, it will remain easy to ignore them and let “somebody else” take care of them. We list saturated fat on all food items, why not their carbon cost as well.

Most of the effort in carbon markets has gone towards large corporations and mega, globe-spanning systems. Those would be great if there was a consensus for action by governments world-wide or even a massive upswelling of popular demand. But that is not the world we live in (even before the present retreat). In the meantime, ordinary folks need to be involved and given the opportunity to participate directly in saving the planet. I’m not sure what the right messaging is or how to combine scare tactics with some kumbaya sensibility. But there are experienced communications professionals out there who need to get us all together on this campaign.


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Babies and Bath Water

4/18/2025

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The recent flurry of lame-brained policy decisions coming out of Washington lately has given us so much to be angry about that it’s easy (and far too common) to stop thinking. If we can grit our teeth and hold on through what will likely be several more horrible years, there may be some use in imagining what a successor Administration (no, not JD Vance) might do in 2029. There is certainly a lot to reverse and repair, but not everything done by HWSNBN is horrible and amid the rubble, there’s much that can be (to coin a phrase) “built back better.”

Indeed, a positive and inspiring reframing by one or more leading democrats/progressives of what the new center left party would stand for must include a fair number of specifics that go beyond merely negating the recent GOP agenda. In addition to acknowledging that government has not been up to the challenges of the 21C, we need to articulate means of substantive improvement. These steps also need to be recast outside of the traditional/tiresome/outdated framework of progressives vs. moderates. This is a time for radical, but not utopian thinking. Limited resources (economic, environmental, and political) means that some “sacred” programs and institutions will need to change or be put on the shelf. Ditto for some constituencies (including many that scream loudly).

According to Buddhist teachings, extracting and focusing on what is true and meaningful amid the muck of the world is essential to karmic progress; captured well in the phrase “finding the jewel in the lotus.” Similar (if less profound work) lies ahead in the world of policy and politics. Trumpian bombast and malevolent MAGA/Musk-ites have produced more muck than previously conceived of, but there are still jewels to be found. We need to put our repulsion at the tactics aside and figure out how to do the important things better; not in the context of restoring the inadequate past, but in terms of facing up to the challenges of the future. Whether in terms of foreign policy or domestic administration, merely going back to business as usual won’t cut it. For all the initiatives of the Biden Administration, they were too caught up in inertia, constituency capture, and lack of vision to change the course of political culture in America. Kamala Harris didn’t have the runway, chutzpah, or vision to do so during her brief campaign. Whoever is next will have to do so.

There are several critiques of traditional US policy that underlie the current MAGA-tudes that are accurate:

* The US wastes a lot of foreign aid money.
* The US has let other “allies” get by with inadequate contributions to shared global security.
* Our domestic health policy is ineffective, overcomplicated, and way too costly.
* Our immigration policy is a hash.
* Our tax structure is a confused (and confusing) muddle.
* Our public debt levels are too high and lower interest rates would reduce the burden on the annual budget.
* We do a lousy job of educating young people for their lives as citizens and workers in the 21C.
* (your additions here)

Now, the test is whether you can agree with these points (or most of them) without falling into a rant over how the current Administration has gone about trashing things or pointing fingers in the usual “blame game.” Then, try to come up with effective solutions. The silver lining in the current mass of clouds is that it is actually easier to do so now that the previous structures/institutions are in rubble.

Winston Churchill (among others) said “never let a good crisis go to waste,” and after just a few months, we already have plenty of “good crises” to deal with. So, what to do? (Let’s imagine—just as a fantasy—that we have an Administration and a Congress willing to act promptly and boldly).

* Environmental protection, carbon markets, and real support for workers affected by the transition
* Radically simplified and progressive tax code
* Integrated medical/health security for all (Medicare, Medicaid, Veterans’ programs)
* Modern computer systems for government administration
* Rewrite the UN and NATO charters
* Treat foreign friends in a friendly way
* Put the culture wars (from both perspectives) off to the side for a while
* (your additions here)

FDR and the “hundred days” that kicked off the New Deal in 1933 is a good role model here; in part through the flood of innovative legislation, but more importantly in the sense of renewal and moral grounding that he sought to instill. He had the benefit of large Congressional majorities and widespread popular agreement that something quite different had to be done.

It’s a tall order and by no means clear that there’s the right person out there to pick up the flag. Congressional sclerosis remains a large impediment to innovation and action, but the lack of coherence in the GOP (especially in a post-Trumpian world) might augur well for surprising flexibility. (after all, the Dems aren’t in much better shape). One key will be to assure the varying pockets of anxiety and fear that their concerns are being met. Beyond the essential moral leadership and comforting, this means that many things—highly distasteful to some portions of the electorate—will need to be incorporated into the new program. It’s a democracy, after all, and that means it would be good to get more than a bare majority on board.

I suspect that the current widespread frustration with US politics and policies is one of the reasons why “cultural” issues have become such flash points, i.e., we’ve given up on substantive policy debates and public debate has been relegated to less central issues.

In returning to the central issues of why we have government, we have to avoid succumbing to fantasies of “if I were King.” It might be satisfying for a moment, but each citizen has the responsibility to be political, too. Compromise is necessary and trying to find the jewels in the current muck is a good start.

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Revolutionary Era.3

4/11/2025

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Having recently (March) completed my OLLI class on the history of revolutions and posted twice on the topic of Revolutionary Era (110824 and 010325), I wanted to address an angle omitted in the latter and which loomed ominously over my effort to focus on the history of revolutions in the course: “Are we having a revolution in the USA today?”

My regular readers will know better than to expect I will pin myself down to a clear and simple answer on this fraught topic.

The first point to be made is that it all depends on what you mean by “revolution.” For some, revolutions can only happen according to the historical/moral arc described by Karl Marx and since elaborated by Lenin and numerous others. Rooted in several aspects of the Great French Revolution (1789 and all that) and exemplified by Russia (1917), China (1949), and Cuba (1959), these sharp and dramatic events mark the assumption of power by the “people” and the construction of a socialist state for their benefit. However, scholars over the past 250 years have utilized dozens of specific definitions. I define a revolution as a conflict between two or more major domestic power groupings, leading to the forcible transfer of power over a state and resulting in significant changes in the nature or structure of the state and society. Such events need not, in my view, follow a Marxian path, or one leading to a democracy. They need not be sudden ruptures, nor is widespread violence required. Within this framework, there are a wide range of configurations of power groupings, ideas, and circumstances that have led to revolutions in the past and it’s easy to imagine more variants. I would include, for example, Iran (1979), England (1689), China (1912), among others.

There are many kinds of “big” political change that thus fall outside this definition, including protests and riots, coups d’etat, invasions, some civil wars, and foreign invasions. January 6, 2021 wasn’t a revolution (it failed). Nor would the winner of the pending civil war in Sudan (not likely to change the nature of the state and society),

Second, it is useful to distinguish between “revolutionary situations” and “revolutionary outcomes.” We obviously can’t have any sense of the “outcome” of the current political upheaval in the US; it is (as they say) “too early to tell.” We know historically that many revolutionary situations don’t produce revolutionary outcomes; the wave of uprisings in Europe in 1848 and the Arab Spring of 2011 are good examples. Generally, however, revolutionary situations are characterized by multiple contenders for control of the mechanisms of a state, each with significant support from domestic power centers, and marked by an unwillingness or inability on the part of the incumbent state/ruler to suppress the contenders.

The current situation resembles, both in terms of its style and its political vector, the situations in Italy (1922) and Germany (1933).  In both historical cases and in the US today, legal and constitutional processes were followed by which a leader was elected with a radical agenda. Historically, this was followed by that leader, using formally proper procedures, dismantling the constitutional structure of the state to a point that more extensive changes in both the constitution and laws could easily be made and, eventually, there were only marginal constraints on the power of a centralized, personality-driven state.

So, even if there are striking historical parallels, the question remains whether this counts as a revolution. In contrast to the classic examples, in Italy and Germany the violence utilized to assume control was incidental not determinative, although it was deployed as an instrument of control following the change in the state in order to ensure extensive changes in society. Similarly, the “losing” power centers had effectively surrendered prior to the broad social changes taking place. (As an aside, it’s worth noting that both Italy and Germany (as well as Japan) each underwent a modernizing “revolution from above” in the second half of the 19C.) If we can get past a rigid reliance on Marxist models of revolution, these examples fit the definition set out above.

More fundamentally, however, we can see that the definitional question doesn’t really matter (except to future historians). The impacts on our country and are world are already profound and long-lasting. Great damage has been done, not only to individuals harmed by the loss of rights, jobs, and subsidies, but to the stability of a world-view deeply embedded in our citizenry and the leaders and citizens around the world.

Now we have no way of knowing how this “revolution” will unfold or whether it will “stick.” The Great French Revolution went through half-a-dozen stages before it reverted to a monarchy under Napoleon. The Russian Revolution of 1905 looked successful—for a year or so—and then was rolled back. The uncertainty could as easily lead to a more authoritarian/populist state or anarchy for a while or a counter-revolution by progressives. Give me another decade and call me back then for an update.

Beyond all this, I take the underlying meaning of the question of whether we’re having a revolution as less a question than as an expression of anxiety. By whatever definition, we’re not used to having revolutions in the US and, while we like to strut in the revolutionary mantle of Jefferson, Adams, Franklin, and Washington et al., we’re really a pretty conservative culture. We have a hard time getting our heads around the idea that WE are susceptible to a revolution. Those who pose the question are asking for reassurance that whatever this is, it will turn out well.

On that score, I have no idea (only hope). Those who would be counter-revolutionaries would be well advised to get into gear. This is not a time for burying one’s head in the sand. The boys of 1776 recognized that they were “all in.” They pledged “their lives, their fortunes, and their sacred honor.” They meant it. We’re glad they did and that it turned out pretty well.

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Cuba Libre

4/4/2025

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I got back last month from a week-long jaunt to Cuba. It’s long been on my bucket list and as a warming winter break, not too far away, with some historical and cultural interest, it fit the bill (besides, who knows if the current administration will cut it off completely soon).

I traveled with a group tour for the first time in about 20 years, which provided structure, a (very) friendly group for interaction, and support (and ease of logistics). Road Scholar did a good job on the ground (although their air travel group dropped the ball on my arrangements).

Cuba was colonized by Spain for 400 years and then either formally or effectively under the thumb of the US for 60 until 1959. We’ve been at war with them since (occasionally hot, but mostly cold); marked by embargoes and isolation. Until the Soviet Union collapsed 35 years ago, a lot of support came from Moscow, but since then, Cuba has struggled pretty much on its own.

Any traveler (particularly for only a week and not speaking the language) can only dip their toe in the water of the local culture. Narratives are shaped by itinerary and guides (and preconceptions). This expedition was certainly no exception. It wasn’t a problem, but it was good to bear in mind. Road Scholar set this up as a culturally focused trip, including a cooking class, a couple of dance performances, a visit to Hemmingway’s house and fishing village, a tobacco farm, time with the famous old American cars of the 1950s, all on top of the usual sightseeing, both in Havana and the countryside. A couple of quite good lectures on the history of Cuban music and architecture also provided good grounding.

The lack of economic development, principally due to the impact of 60+ years of US economic boycott and sanctions, is a central fact of Cuban life. We imposed this mode of economic warfare at the height of the Cold War (immediately after the Cuban Missile Crisis). Since then, with some relaxation under the Obama Administration, we continue to pretend that the global struggle against Communism is still underway. Cuba clearly has a socialist economy, but we avidly trade with every other erstwhile (or continuing) Communist country. We’ve gotten over the “loss” of China (1949-1972), the loss to Vietnam (1954-1991), not to mention Russia (1917-1933 and occasional and limited sanctions since then thru to the Putin era). Why pick on Cuba? Could it be that the exiles in Miami who lost their property in Cuba as a result of the 1959 Revolution are stuck in the past? Could it be that there’s no clear major domestic US beneficiary of normal economic relations to lobby for change? It’s a minor issue for us; it’s been devastating for the Cuban people.

It's a curious corner of global imperial history that those who leverage the formal and informal structures of power to their own advantage—aligning with either the imperial power or a local regime of exploitation—are often the most vehement about the loss of that power. The ex-Battista-ites (i.e., those aligned with the regime overthrown by Castro in 1959) now in South Florida are of a piece with the pieds-noir (the French who lived in Algeria and violently opposed that country’s independence) or the Brits in residence in Kenya or Rhodesia. They all stood in opposition to history’s wave of decolonization in the mid-20C. The others have faded away. But not the Cubans.

It's hard to believe that a deal cannot be struck to provide a face-saving compensation plan to those whose families’ property was confiscated by the revolutionary state in the 1960s. More complex situations—post-Holocaust, post-Soviet, or even what we took from the Brits during the Revolutionary War—have pretty much been resolved through payments, claims processing, or a gentle consignment to the mists of “ancient history.” It’s more than time to move on. There is energy and opportunity all across Cuba (although less now, since about a million people have left and gone elsewhere in the Western Hemisphere for new opportunities.

The impact of the sanctions is quite evident in Havana, a city rich in history—empire, slavery, sugar—and home to about 2M of Cuba’s 10M people. Fine colonial architecture and a few modern buildings (built either by the Russians or, more recently non-US investors) sit cheek-by-jowl with crumbling concrete. It’s a vibrant place with plenty of sites for a few days of touristing. We were well fed (one goes only to the burgeoning private restaurants and avoids the overpriced and poor quality state-run stores and eateries).  Our group was supplied with drinks at all meals—the usual range of tropical favorites—which one could get with or without “Vitamin R” (one of the many local rums). I partook regularly. Rum is my normal summer drink, so I was glad to get the chance to “taste local.” I still have (unopened) a bottle of Bacardi which my grandparents brought back from Cuba in the 1950s. Bacardi decamped to the US and Puerto Rico and has spearheaded the US sanctions regime against Cuba since.

Castro installed a “communist” regime, banning private industry, but that has long been relaxed in many sectors. Both in the capital and the countryside, small private businesses have been allowed for a couple of decades and are impressive. Road Scholar goes out of its way to feature success stories in multiple sectors. Private businesses are unconstrained by the formal currency conversion rate and US dollars are widely accepted (the de facto rate is about three times that of the formal rate, making many cash transactions (US credit cards are not allowed) a pretty good deal. Cubans have a long history of resilience—whether vis-à-vis the Spanish, local oligarchies, American sanctions, or the loss of Russian subsidies 30+ years ago, or the current nonsense of US foreign policy. They scrounge and scramble. There’s an appealing spirit and an informal motto that “nothing is impossible.” They deserve a chance to build on that spirit.

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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