Steve Harris
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Frames of Perspective

3/28/2025

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Having reached a ripe (not-quite-old) age, I am regularly aware of the distance from where I am now to the memories and the world of my youth. Each of us, regardless of the length of time upon which we look back, is likely quite aware of how much things have changed. Whether we mark things in terms of prices/inflation (gas for 16.9 cents/gallon), memories of sports teams (I was not worldly-conscious the last time the Lions won a football championship), or world events (JFK assassination), we all have markers of how the world was when we were young.

As a historian, it’s part of my job to look backwards—usually further back than I was alive—to see how things were back then. It’s easy to toss off references to Napoleon, or Plymouth Rock, or Plato, without fully resonating with the distance from their worlds to now. I (at least) make a mental jump back as best I can, but it’s a leap; it’s hard to connect directly, piece-by-piece with the more distant past. I have a good friend who is rather into genealogy; he can trace several lines of descent back to the 17C, plotting each generation along the way. Most of us can go back (at least in awareness, if not in actual contact) to our great-grandparents (for me, that’s the 1860s-70s), but not much further; and that’s only a tiny slice of history: one particular family tree and contemplating my own lifespan in terms of the larger development of history seems a step beyond.

How do we grasp the time spans so as to put the changes of history into perspective? How do we respect those of the past who stood in the same relation to their own past as we do to ours? It is difficult to reconstruct their mentalité. Perhaps we can get at it a bit through framing their past as we do our own.

So, here’s a few ways to look at how my lifespan stacks up.
  •  It’s been 56 years since humans landed on the Moon (1969), which was 62 years since the Wright Brothers flew at Kitty Hawk. I was 15 for the Apollo landing, my grandfather was 71, but he was 7 when the news from Kitty Hawk (eventually) made its way to Michigan’s Upper Peninsula where he grew up.
  • I was talking to some people in Nairobi recently, a bustling metropolis overrun with Kenyan population growth (almost 6 million people); hub of Eastern Africa. I worked there for a few weeks in 1981 (44 years ago, population under 1 million). Another 44 years would take us to 1937, when it was a sleepy (pre-war) colonial capital of about 100,000. For Kenyans of a certain age in 1981 (whether of African or English lineage) the move to an independent Black-led country in 1964 was still the defining event in their history. Now, fewer than 10% of the population were part of that moment.
  • We are running up to the Semiquincentennial of the Declaration of Independence (1776); 250 years before then would take us to 1526, the midst of the Protestant Reformation in Europe and not too long since Magellan’s crew returned from their inaugural round-the-world adventure. Such events were deeply embedded in the world of the “Founding Fathers”; much as the Declaration is now part of our ‘furniture.’
  • For my (recent) students (born (e.g.) in 2004), the fall of Communism (1990) was about the same period before their birth as the start of WWII (1939) was for me. These students formative years were slammed by the Great Recession, just as my parents (and theirs) faced the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The end of the Soviet Empire in Central and Southeast Europe and Central Asia also precipitated the end of the Cold War. New countries emerged from within or from under the shadow of Moscow to chart their own courses, each reflecting their own peculiar mix of domestic and global factors. Democracy has often struggled in these places with limited history of a coherent political community. Economies have adapted to the 21C style of industrialism and consumer markets. Cultures have blossomed in sharply differentiated directions.

Some of these countries were in the Russian (/Soviet) orbit for less than fifty years, some for centuries. At what stage do we consign the period of imperial control (now 34 years old) to “ancient history?” At what stage are Romanians, Uzbeks, and Estonians to be considered on their own, where they can’t plausibly blame the cold hand of Alexander II, Stalin, or Gorbachev for their condition? The same question can be asked of the dozens of countries that emerged from European domination in the middle of the 20C. Spain controlled Latin America for about three hundred years, but that was over two hundred years ago. Much of Africa was swooped up by Britain or France in the 1880s and ‘90s. They ran the shows for 70-80 years, but that, too, was now 60 or so years ago. Certainly those periods still echo today in many ways, but in terms of causation (much less blame), they are really of much less significance than the actions and attitudes of those who had no sense of those periods of formal domination. Blaming the former colonial overlords may make for good politics when things are tough, but in most cases, there’s much less there than meets the eye.

Each generation has a set of such landmarks from which they construct their own frame of reference about how the world is (or should be). They’re hard to escape. It’s useful, therefore, to remember that “objects in the mirror are closer than they appear” and to recognize that the distortions are of our own making. The “echoes” of history that each of us recall are largely a product of those particular frames that we construct.

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The Futility of Imperialism

3/21/2025

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I was joking with a friend of mine recently about the implications of a subset of the provocative rantings of HWSNBN: those related to his plans for the US to acquire (in no particular order) Greenland, Canada, the Panama Canal, and Gaza. I suggested that we lay in a stock of 54-star flags to prepare for the “Make (Greater) America Great Again” era now dawning.

Leaving aside the blustering aspects of these pronouncements as a combination of tactical posturing and generic disruption, some are asking whether this is the start of a new era of US imperialism. Having spent some time working on the ways and means of modern empires across the world, I thought it would be good to talk about why it’s a bad idea.

Let’s quickly get the moral issue out of the way. The idea of asserting control over another country for one’s own self-gratification or greed is pretty generally denounced (I was tempted to say “universally” denounced, but such sweeping statements no longer are applicable in our current cultural milieu). Empires in the modern world (predominantly European, but also including the US, Japan, China, Israel(?)) have been universally accompanied by oppression, brutality, and exploitation. There have been, to be sure, most cases, some countervailing benefits, often considerable; but I will not go down the path of trying to tote up a balance sheet on any of them. Most of the benefits have been based on all manner of self-serving rationalizations (such as the French “civilizing mission” theory). Even if we were to conclude that imperial control provided a net benefit to the colonized, we have to acknowledge that there was a lot of ‘bad’ done along the way.

When talking about empire, it’s important to distinguish between “formal” empires (where the (e.g.) British flag flew over Ireland, India, Nyasaland, and New Zealand) and “informal” empires where the country is nominally independent, but is under the influence/domination of the imperial power like the Soviet Empire in Central Europe or the US vis-à-vis South Vietnam, and much of South America from the mid-19C to mid-20C. In the present case, it seems like we’re talking about the formal kind of empire.

Formal empires don’t work in the modern world. They’re expensive to operate and defend and raise all sorts of problems and distractions. That’s part of the reason the British/French/Dutch (and, eventually, the Portuguese) got rid of theirs in the mid 20C. We’ve never quite figured out how to handle Puerto Rico (acquired from the Spanish in 1898). A fascinating study of the costs and benefits of the British Empire to Great Britain showed that it was a net wash to the homeland. (Of course, the benefits went to the commercial elites and the costs were borne by the ordinary taxpayers.)

Another reason they don’t work is that conquest is expensive and continued control is even more expensive. Especially in the fully-connected/globalized world, locals have examples and idealized versions of having a free society and don’t like being blatantly dominated/exploited, much less being forcibly incorporated into another national system. They work less and cause more trouble for the occupying power. Up to WWI, there was a theory that expanding one’s territory and population provided a rationale for conquest and control of other places. It might have worked in a pre-industrial, less educated/interconnected era. The Japanese in China (starting in the 1930s) might have been able to pull it off as might have the Germans in 1940s Central Europe; but in more modern Western Europe they didn’t get the chance since they were only there for a few years before their system crashed and there was already robust resistance.

In the last 75 years, there have been few examples of attempted international conquest, whether forcible/military or otherwise (and it’s hard to think of successful ones). Almost every military conflict during that period has been domestic/civil in nature and most international inventions have been defensive/peace-keeping in nature. Putin’s Ukraine venture might be an exception, but given the strong Russian ethnic presence in the occupied territories, the task of integrating them into Russia might be feasible. It’s not clear how the potential for China taking over Taiwan would actually work in this light. Even if the military invasion was successful, the ensuring destruction and global economic isolation would make the prospects of integration problematic (even in this intra-ethnic context). Formal peaceful transfers of territory and sovereignty are similarly scarce on the ground (leaving aside a handful of negotiated border adjustments).

In a world of nation-states, the thought of forceful integration doesn’t really fit. In a world which hungers for geopolitical stability, only outliers contemplate territorial expansion, even in much of the world (e.g. most of Latin America, Africa, and various parts of southern Asia) where territorial boundaries set up in the last round of European Imperialism were arbitrary and problematic.

Empire is almost exclusively ‘informal’ these days. The US may browbeat Canada and Mexico over tariffs, but most informal empire is much more soft-spoken and most is via the private sector’s control of jobs, investment, and culture. Our global network of military bases is pretty powerful, but not actually used much to control the hosts.

So, let’s keep the stars-and-stripes at its current count (unless we want to add Puerto Rico and DC). We are better off having the US purview “from sea to shining sea” run from the Atlantic to the Pacific and not from the Arctic across the “Gulf of America” and then on to the Mediterranean.

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Samson

3/7/2025

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Samson didn’t have orange hair. When he pulled down the temple (Judges 16: 28-30), he was, in his own way, a nihilist, believing he had little to lose and a minimal and unpleasant future.
His current disciple is not muscle-bound, although he aspires to be a strong-man (albeit of a different tenor). I don’t want to push the Biblical analogy too far; but I can see an echo in the current administration and its supporters. While there have been many analyses of their beliefs and rationales, when we look at their approach to governing, “short-termism” seems to be a plausible common characteristic. Indeed, after my recent historical look at over-the-horizon planning, a friend of mine noted that long-term thinking is pretty rare in our nation’s capital these days.

By “short-termism,” I mean not only a focus on immediate attention in the media and from other countries, companies, and political groups, but the absence of a sense of how the proposed actions—including wholesale firings of senior government employees, mass layoffs of government employees in general, termination of domestic and international financial assistance programs—appear to be inconsistent with previously-established legal principles and accepted conventions of how the country operates. I guess revolutionaries (even those on the right who might be expected to have more resonance with history) have little truck with the concept of precedent.

More importantly, this short-termism is at odds with how most Presidents have conducted themselves (albeit imperfectly). After all, one of the principal differences between “America First”-ers and traditional policies (of either party) is that the former seek only immediate benefits, while the latter take a longer view of the national interest. The premise of international humanitarianism (beyond its moral component) is that a good reputation will redound to the benefit of the US. The premise of predictability and reliability in international diplomacy is that a reputation for trustworthiness will make future dealings more successful. Similarly, domestically, a reliable presence and completing the funding of promised programs and infrastructure is an important basis of citizens’ confidence in their own government.

As a result, the implications of present behavior will extend well beyond their immediate effect on government operations and the beneficiaries of government programs. Presidential actions and attitudes have become unpredictable and destabilizing, increasing risk across the board. Even (temporary?) reversals  or court injunctions can’t prevent a fundamental loss of trust that will take years or decades to rebuild, on top of the extensive direct harm to the individuals and families affected.

Many think all of this is bad. But, those currently driving the bus do not. There are several aspects of their likely motivations and rationales that are worth considering.

1) “We will save the country and launch it on a new direction.” This is a revolutionary outlook, one which implies that the Dems will fall by the wayside; the Constitution is expendable, and that MAGA solutions will not produce longer-term problems.” In this view precedents don’t matter until the revolutionaries are well-settled into incumbency and by then, the US will be so feared internationally that we can continue on without undue cost.
2) “We don’t care what happens in the long term.” This attitude seems to prevail in the GOP leadership in Congress. I don’t think we’ve seen a senior Republican legislator (much less Executive Branch leadership) address the implications of the extensive array of newly-established precedents (among a host of other issues to which they seem intentionally asleep). Assuming (!) a salvageable political environment emerges in four years, GOP leaders will have little basis to say (if that matters) that the new Dem President is going overboard in reversing much of what is being done now. Indeed, it’s hard to imagine, if the Dems sweep to control, that they will comply with any Congressional “courtesies” and customs in their eagerness to “build back better.”

All of this assumes that the electorate is actually appalled by the practical implications of the current torrent of moves. Let’s be clear, no one (of whatever persuasion) will vote based on the wipe-out of USAID and few care about the trashing of norms and procedures. It remains to be seen what portion of the deluge is a political stunt (the domestic equivalent of “shack-and-awe”), and what portion will actually lead to problems that rile ordinary folks up (particularly those who might then vote or swing from the GOP). Offing thousands of “bureaucrats” won’t matter outside of the D.C. area where they are a significant portion of the electorate. When “hold times” get longer, when benefit applications aren’t processed, and programs that affect lots of ordinary folks grind to a halt, then perhaps—perhaps—the electoral outlook will change. In the meantime, closing down National Parks or deporting immigrants to Guantanamo is likely to piss-off the crunchies on the left far more than nature lovers and MAGA-lovers on the right.

Meanwhile, this dramatic activity enables our latter-day Samson to proclaim that he’s “taking action,” “owning the ‘libs’,” and “draining the swamp.” For those whose support for HWSNBN has been a “feelings” statement (rather than one focused on real solutions), this is quite satisfying.

However, from another “short-term” perspective, there’s no reason to think that the current deluge will have any effect on the nominal short-term concerns of the electorate: housing prices and other “inflation,” jobs, and a sense of security in the world. Indeed, tariffs and market uncertainty are likely to harm the economy in due course. If elections are about “are you better off now than four years ago?,” then there’s little on tap to help Vance, Don Jr., or whoever gets nominated brag.

Putin, Netanyahu, and Xi are another story. Marco Rubio may be a craven fool, but he’s not an idiot. I’d love to hear him talk about how the world is going to look four years hence. Say what you will about the Bush-Cheney “doctrine,” but at least it was coherent. “America First” always sounds good and, after all, who could argue with it. The problem with it as a basis for foreign policy is that it never articulates over what time frame we should put the interests of America “first.” Appeasement and retaliatory trade policy are viscerally satisfying, but the hangovers in the real world (in the morning after or the decade after) are always more painful and expensive than taking the short-term hit that its advocates usually say they are trying to avoid.

Samson didn’t care about the morning after. His orange-haired successor doesn’t seem to either (noisy trolling about a third term notwithstanding)

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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