Steve Harris
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Genes and Memes

2/28/2025

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Genes and Memes

Well before the cis-/trans/assigned at birth issues became culturally central, personal identification by “national” origin/affiliation was an essential part of the modern global culture that arose across the 19/20C. While this frame of reference was often originally cast in terms of “race,” the meaning of that word has changed over time (we no longer talk about the Scottish “race” for example). That etymological shift was part of the nominal ‘scientification’ of race in the late 19C in which “Caucasian,” “Negro,” and “Asiatic” groups were assigned immutable characteristics and thus, the enabled the rationales for all manner of discriminatory/oppressive behavior, both across empires and within countries. Emerging sociological analyses talked about “national character” which was partially a continuation of the “race” discourse and partially a way to put a scientific gloss on discriminatory treatment.

In parallel, the concept of the “nation” as an ethno-linguistic grouping emerged and became the touchstone for ideas of political organization; initially across Europe, then globally. While this undoubtedly provided a “waystation” for highly localized cultures to deal with the globalizing world, the freezing of identity at the national level eventually led to any number of horrible developments across the 20C and has continued to animate politics in the 21C, with prospects paralleling those of the 20th. Internationalism and its sibling cosmopolitanism were earnest efforts, but almost always secondary to nationalism, even among the elites. For most folks, a national perspective was about as far as they could comprehend.

Despite the proclamations by politicians and group leaders in almost every country in the world, (thundering on about “blood-ties” or “[fill-in-the-blank] – ness)” the key point about national identity is that it is—in almost all cases—a construct of human culture. Just as evolutionary science has undermined the notions of separate black/white/yellow/red/brown “races,” so to do we have to recognize that—biologically—there are no “Irish,” “Arabs,” “Germans,” etc. (much less national identities in Africa and much of Asia (where chiefdoms and other local groups were either split or mashed together by European imperial line-drawing), South America (where chiefdoms and other local groups were overrun by Iberian invaders and interbred with them and imported African slaves).

Americans are, of course, mongrels. As are the Brits (German, French, Norse, Celts, later joined by a variety of imperial imports) and, in fact, almost everyone else. We have known this at an anecdotal level for some time, but now we are on the cusp of leveraging evolutionary genetics to make this clear at a scientific level. Specifically, the emerging specialty of paleogenomics studies the DNA of anthropologically-discovered ancient humans and creates lines of descent between extinct and modern populations. So far, it has undermined the bright line we all learned in school as between Neanderthals and Homo Sapiens and provided more direct evidence about ancient migration patterns that heretofore were the (somewhat) speculative province of paleolinguists (those who track cultural changes through the evolution of language (e.g. Indo-European roots of Modern English).

The most interesting work is still to come, with the ability to trace the migration of very ancient and relative recent peoples (e.g. Mongols, Huns, Goths, Norse) I suspect it will become clearer that the differences between modern Germans and modern French are relatively recent and thin. Ditto for Russians and Ukrainians, Bosniaks and Serbs, Iraqis and Iranians, etc.

Historians will thus have a new arrow in their quiver to puncture populist oversimplifications. It’s a tough sell. The Musk-eteer barging around Europe telling Germans that they have “too much of a focus on past guilt,” Putin is showing a dab hand at recharacterizing the national identity of Ukrainians, and nationalist/populists across the continent are eagerly omitting any mention of the complexities of their own national history. Here in the US, the rush to vocational training and underfunding of universities is making it difficult to get young people to wrestle with the messy stories of the past and various politicians are trying to legislate their version of the “truth.” Other “truths” (or at least equally plausible stories) are (as Al Gore said 19 years ago (!)) “inconvenient.” What happened in the first part of the 20C is not necessarily “repeating itself” these days, but it does look to be rhyming on multiple syllables.

As I suggested a few weeks ago, our modern world has gotten stuck in the first wave of institutionalization, of which national identity is a key component. The challenges raised by social sciences and humanities to this social self-construct have—so far—proved insufficient to turn the tide. It remains to be seen whether the addition of evidence from the “hard” sciences that will show in detail the similarity of so-called national identities will change minds.

Nationalism as a principal means of self-identification arose in the 19C under the pressures of globalization which showed the inadequacy of localities as a foundation for self. Concurrently, other modes-especially religion—were eroding. Thinking of oneself as Hanoverian or as Catholic no longer sufficed. Now, (with the exception of some Muslims, Hindus and Evangelicals) religion provides even less of an anchor to navigate a world beset with 24/7 global communication, instant translation, and culture that is increasingly indistinct. It took decades (centuries?) for nationalism to establish itself and the current transition—in which nationalism is the traditional and soon to be outmoded frame of reference—will not be any faster or less bloody.

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Over the Horizon

2/21/2025

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The onset of the new Administration presents a scary prospect for many: 1430 more days where well-embedded norms of morality, law, and order are likely to be regularly upset with dire consequences for many. The climate crisis will likely have much deeper and longer-term negative consequences. As a result, it’s not surprising that many are “hunkering down,” hoping to wait it out, emerge “après le deluge,” and restart their lives. As a historian, I was curious how people looked at the future the last time such a deluge loomed and I looked at a few angles from the late 1930s and early 1940s as war unfolded across Asia and Europe.

There was resistance, of course, and appeasement/hand-wringing.  Many in both camps did not survive to have much of a future. In terms of those who envisioned or planned for a postwar world, historians have access only to those whose written records survive which skews the sample upon which I will base a few observations.

* Post-cataclysm planning can only occur once survival is assured and there is some optimism of emerging in the aftermath. Until then, it’s hard to have the confidence necessary to posit what things will be like “over the horizon.” With limited exceptions, until the tides turned in 1942/43 from a military perspective (Coral Sea, Stalingrad, El Alamein) there didn’t seem much point.
* In the U.S. while there was some serious consideration in the State Department of what the “post-war” world would look like (starting in 1939). This project looked mostly at global issues and structures, eventually morphing into the plans for the UN and related international organizations that emerged in 1944-45.  This effort was inspired by the recognized failures of the post-WWI Versailles process. Indeed, one notable aspect of the planning effort was the degree to which it was really just an extension of pre-war concerns and beliefs; there wasn’t much in the way of bold new thinking.
* Planning included serious scenarios for “what if the Germans win.” By the time Hitler invaded France (May, 1940) however, it became clear that early assessments based on a more limited war were outdated. By the end of 1942, the press of operational and shorter-term issues overwhelmed the attention of those who were trying to look further out.
* In both the US and Britain, another motivation for the planning was the desire to be able to present a post-war vision that would inspire both soldiers and the home front to make the sacrifices necessary during the war. So, to some degree, the plans made served a domestic propaganda purpose as well as helping senior officials think about what might emerge. This may well have skewed the visions/plans developed in the process.
* “Post-war” planning in the US had a different tenor than that in other countries. We never faced an existential threat, so there was no question of having to start anew. Rather, recognizing that the War wrought significant changes, issues of domestic policy (e.g., race, housing) were considered as modifications of pre-existing practices. In the UK, survival was the sole focus through 1942 when several initiatives began to look at the nature of Britain after the War. The Beveridge Report of that year was the most notable and was the template for the postwar welfare state.
* Governments-in-exile (mostly European and based in London) similarly concentrated on the war effort initially. Later, their post-war planning (for both their home countries and their global imperial holdings) were pretty much premised on the restoration of the status quo ante. Until later in the war, there seems to have been little in the way of focused attention on how their occupied societies would change (and need to change) after the Axis powers were ousted.
* “Planning” was much less of a ‘thing’ back then. Especially in governments (but also in larger private sector institutions), the extensive apparatus and tool kit of strategic thinking and foreshadowing the future was sparse on the ground. The attention to organized planning didn’t gain much traction until after the War.
* As with almost all long-term planning projects, the reality turned out far different from what was on paper. There was never a return to “normalcy.” Restarting societies after the war was principally a matter of relief and repair which gradually morphed into a new status quo. After the USSR joined the Allied effort (mid-1941), it was assumed that they would be part of the postwar international order. Indeed, some have argued that considerable concessions were made (e.g. European boundaries) to try to keep them “in the game.” Of course, by late in the war, the prospect of continued contention between the US/UK and Soviet Union seriously dimmed those prospects.

Eighty-some years later, what perspectives can we gain as we try to muster the energy/fortitude/optimism to see the world of 2029?

1. It’s much too early to tell what the world will look like. Getting beyond platitudes and general philosophy will likely turn out to be futile.
2. Much of the effort will be about repair and recovery.  There is more than enough anxiety about the challenges of the next few years to make it especially difficult to entertain radical/innovative changes for the longer-term future.
3. Long-term planning is as much about supporting morale during the immediate struggle as it is about what will actually happen.
4. No one (other than a sliver of academics) cares about what the losers were planning.



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Squaring a Circle

2/14/2025

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A Federal Court of Appeals recently threw out proposed regulations by the FCC which limited internet service providers’ freedom with respect to authors, publishers, and other information providers who utilized the ISPs’ services to distribute their info. ISPs were to be treated as “common carriers” an ancient regulatory model (dating from 16C England and applying to ferry companies, bridge operators, and other transportation service providers), placed under FCC regulations, and required to treat all customers the same. For example, Comcast/Xfinity couldn’t make sure that its own streaming channels went through the network faster than Disney/ESPN services.

The rubric for this regulatory regime is “net neutrality.” It has generally been pushed by Democratic administrations and the FCC Chair-designate has indicated his opposition to the concept, thus ensuring that the Commission won’t be reviving them for at least four years.

My interest is less in the specific court rationale in this decision (which has to do with the relative power and responsibilities of the legislative and judicial branches) than with the jostling for power among the various service providers in the tumultuous world of internet/information. I have some experience in this area, having been a regulatory lobbyist for ATT/PacBell/PacificTelesis for fourteen years, then General Counsel of two internet companies (and two years at the FCC before then). It was another era to be sure—back in the 1980s and ‘90s—but while technology has certainly changed, some key things haven’t.

To illustrate this, I’m going to quote Jim Graf, a mentor of mine when I was a junior FCC policy-maker. Jim told me: “Some people (i.e. industry lobbyists) come in here (to propose or oppose some policy change) and pound the table and tell us about all the economic impact; and, you know, it’s the money that’s at stake. Other people come in here and pound the table and tell us about the great principles (e.g. First Amendment, “fair” competition) at risk; but, you know, it’s the money.”

So, I can tell you, whether it’s telephone companies, social media, databases, AIs, cable companies, ISPs, publishers, cellular companies, broadcast stations, networks, start-ups, incumbents, investors, they’re all capitalists out to get an edge on their competition/customers/suppliers. The lobbyist’s job is (my job was) to come up with clever arguments (wrapped in the holy cloth of advancing the “public interest” that was the nominal basis of the agency’s decision) that would benefit my company/client.

The regulators are in the unenviable position of trying to keep up with much better staffed and resourced supplicants and try to figure out some policy that will advance their own political proclivities. The FCC, in particular, has been struggling with this for about 70 years in the context of rapidly changing technologies and markets, usually trying to apply outdated legislative direction (which is quite applicable today where the last major telecom legislation was approved almost 30 years ago).

The “net neutrality” rubric was a nice phrase to make the case of information providers look pretty. Let’s not shed too much of a tear for the likes of Disney/Apple/Meta. Nor, for that matter, for the broadband service providers (Comcast/ATT/Verizon). None of their executives has missed a meal and their principal competition is the size of their stock option packages. There are myriad ways in which service providers can subtly tilt the “level playing field” to their own advantage.

In this case, the broadband carriers (even if they have their own information services (e.g., Xfinity is co-owned with NBC) have traditionally been exempt from this kind of regulation since they were making decisions about what information to make available to their customers (which sounds a lot like publishing protected from government intrusion under the 1st Amendment). Making them treat folks like the NYT or other information providers equally looks sensible on its face, but it’s pretty much the same as requiring the NYT to run a column by Steve Bannon every week; i.e., it smacks of government censorship.

So, “net neutrality,” shorn of its innocuous name is a highly problematic policy; one which the courts have repeatedly nixed. Whether some other (Democratic) administration tries again we will leave to the future. If so, the FCC could sure use some help/clarity from Congress about how to handle this delicate balancing act.

It's no accident that this is happening as Musk’s “X” and Zuckerberg’s Meta are sloughing off their roles as reviewers (censors?) of the content posted on their sites. Both are turning into publishing platforms with (mostly) outsourced content generation and are, unsurprisingly, trying to have it both ways (see above re: capitalist motivations). They want the benefit of drawing eyeballs without being responsible for what is published on their platforms. Meanwhile, the broadband ISPs want the benefit of drawing eyeballs (data traffic) without being subject to FCC regulation.

In both cases, corporate types are maximizing profit opportunity with little regard for societal impacts. It’s pretty clear that social media is accelerating the polarization of civic discourse and undermining concern with accuracy that is the foundation of a coherent society. A few states and countries are at least starting to protect young people by trying to limit their access to such corrosive “information” streams. But dealing with the underlying problem will require fresh thinking about the nature of society, debate (“facts”), and government regulation. Adapting traditional public health rationales to the information age will mean that we will have to make clear that the 1st Amendment is not an absolute (no protection for shouting “fire” in a crowded theater) even while remembering that government is crappy at making subtle and adaptable standards.

This is far more important than “net neutrality,” but the latter amply illustrates that the policy/law making process is kludgy and that the big players can only be trusted to take care of their own pocketbooks.

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The Fire This Time

2/7/2025

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The Fire This Time

One hundred years ago (July, 1925), Mein Kampf was published. Ten years later, in command of the German State, Hitler promulgated the Nuremburg Laws (September, 1935), a key step in the Nazi campaign against the Jews. Ten years later (May, 1945), the war in Europe ended with the destruction of the Nazi Germany. Few would have said in 1925 that Hitler, fresh out of jail for his role in the failed “Beer Hall Putsch” of 1923, had much of a future. Few would have said in 1935 that Germany, Italy, and Japan would take on (pretty much) the rest of the world in a massive conflagration. Many were in denial of what lay ahead, many wrung their hands, some warned of the dangers, but there was little prediction of what actually happened. Similarly, in the ruins of Berlin in 1945, any thoughts that Germany would again be the economic powerhouse of Europe and be tied to its French arch-enemy were scarce on the bomb-furrowed ground. What I take from this is that things aren’t predictable. The future may look bright or dark; but we just don’t know and current events aren’t a great guide to what the world is going to look like.

Right now, the torrent of godawful news from Washington makes things look pretty bleak. The world could spin out into some pretty horrific directions. But just because the Nazis trashed Germany and the world doesn’t mean something similar will happen again. We just don’t know.

Hegel, in the early 19C, insisted that people and governments hadn’t learned from history. Two centuries later, there is no reason to argue with him. This is, of course, a matter of great frustration for historians. We come from a humanist, Enlightenment tradition with a belief in education and improvement at the personal and societal levels (“progress”). We like to believe that people are (or, at least, can be) rational, compassionate, and (in an old sense) “liberal.” There are plenty of others, academic or otherwise, who share those tenets.

Much of the frustration among those groups over the past decade or so (and not just in the US) has been our disbelief that so many have run away from this approach to understanding the world. The larger part of those who have done so—as is always the case—are understandably focused on the survival/security of themselves and their families. The second largest group comprises those who prefer ignorant bliss and feel-good tribalism to dealing with the complex realities of the world. Then there are those who are (some combination of) aware, well-meaning, and unable to rouse themselves to engage (the “hand-wringers”).

A hallmark of those who believe in progress, facts, and rationality is a certain faith that people can be educated and persuaded; that’s its only a matter of data and messaging. This is a triumph of hope over (Hegelian) experience.

I wrote late last year that it might be better to stop pounding the table about climate change so as better to preserve the strength of those who are concerned about it. It’s an interesting question whether this should be applied more broadly, e.g., to the state of democracy, liberalism, etc. Given the incoming administration here in the US, it’s a timely question. I’m not suggesting rolling-over; resistance remains necessary. Rather, tactically, it may be a more effective defense of liberty to keep much of our powder dry than burn much of it in pro forma and performative posturing.

Such an approach will have no appeal to martyrs, or those who have sufficiently sipped of the cup of rational argument to continue to think that we must continue to protest and make noise! They’re mounting multi-million dollar campaigns against the confirmation of the eminently dubious nominees for the new cabinet. As if. As if. As if Republican Senators had much in the way of integrity or conscience. As if anything approaching a rational discourse is feasible in today’s noise-drenched imitation of the rational/liberal public sphere. [Actually, who do they think they’re persuading with all this?] As if fortifying the rhetorical ramparts will convince enough people of the daunting nature of the threat. There is something about those who seem to believe that protesting the dark is noble and morally necessary.  It could be that such folks, with excellent intentions, still can’t see the tide coming in and insist, with King Canute, that ordering it otherwise will be effective. They may not be able to see that we may be better off—like any number of shore-dwelling critters—to hunker down and wait for the tide to go back out.

I cited the events in the opening paragraph about Germany in the early 20C less as a set of precedents for our current parlous state than as a reminder that our ability to predict the course of the world remains humbling and, more importantly, that for every disaster, there has been a reconstruction. No one would say that the current state of the world, in terms of climate, economic equality, social justice, etc. is anywhere close to where it should be; our Enlightened modernity has many flaws. So this is NOT a call for a preservation of the status quo, much less the retrieval of some bygone Golden Age. What comes out the other end will be sharply different than either historical examples or current predictions.

By the same token, history gives no cause for despair in the long term. There is no reason to think that avoiding the worst of the current trends and the most direly projected consequences through some struggle that merely ameliorates and incrementally “improves” the present state of things would end up being better than what might occur through the 21C moral equivalent of the 14C Black Death. We just don’t know.

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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