Steve Harris
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  • Condemned to Repeat It

Ancien Regime

1/16/2026

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In December, 1783, the signed confirmation of British recognition of American independence arrived in Philadelphia to great excitement. A month later, it was ratified by the Continental Congress, acting under the Articles of Confederation. The Articles, which set the framework for joint action by the thirteen colonies had been in place for three years, but many were already unhappy with how it worked. 

By 1786, that unhappiness had increased and delegates gathered in Annapolis to see if they could propose some improvements, but only five states showed up and most states had authorized their delegates to discuss only a limited range of issues, so the Annapolis group advised that a more extensive set of reforms needed to be considered. The Continental Congress agreed that a revision was appropriate and delegates from twelve states arrived in the Spring of 1787 to discuss those changes. 

What (we call) the Constitutional Convention proposed instead was a wholesale rewrite of the relationship between the States, including a detailed structure for a new national government. It was far beyond their mandate, but they were able to persuade Congress and the country that more radical action was necessary. Even back then, the concept of the rule of law was part of  British political culture and, from that perspective, the route to the Constitution for a large part of the former British North America was problematic, not to say (literally) revolutionary.

Immediately after the new Constitution was ratified, the Bill of Rights was adopted and we have been living under this arrangement (with only a few significant formal amendments) ever since. Hundreds of proposals for updating have died somewhere in the multi-stage process of amendment established under Article V. Along the way, the (unelected) Supreme Court has (usually to much controversy) interpreted the document in novel ways. But, that’s it.

While the great powers of Europe and the ancient cultures of Japan and China can claim greater duration, the US has the oldest continuous Constitutional system of any country in the world. Perhaps in competition for their venerability, we have, for a long time, been proud of our longevity as a nation and the stability of our system of government.

That’s no longer the case, or, stated differently, our society is stuck with a governing structure that is archaic, virtually static, and unfit for purpose in the 21C.

It’s as if we were trying to run an AI system on MS-DOS (although, I guess, early AI attempts were exactly that!).

From another perspective, when the Constitution was adopted there were less than four million people in the US, of whom (excluding women, slaves, and children) there were well under one million eligible voters. (In fact, only 28,000 people actually voted for George Washington for President a year later.) So, a group roughly the size of Connecticut or Utah wrote the rules under which we still live.  By the same token, our current total population of about 1/3 billion represents about 60% of all the people who have ever lived in these United States.  The historical tail is wagging the contemporary dog.

It's an interesting question of culture, history, (and anthropology?) as to why we subject ourselves to their rules and practices. The point goes far beyond the constitutional context framed here. Culture is, pretty much by definition, the product of history; after all, we don’t know anything else. It can also be seen as a deal between the past, the present, and the future. We (in the present) accept the judgment of our predecessors as to how we should run ourselves and our society. We also represent to our progeny that how we are doing so is the best way for those to come to run themselves and their society; even knowing—in each case—that changes have been and will be made. No group at any particular point has the time/bandwidth to rewrite everything; so, most change is sporadic and incidental (however chaotic it might seem at the time).

In her recent history of the Constitutional amendment process “We the People,” Jill Lepore reiterates that we are out of practice in terms of Constitutional change. The last time we made more than minor tweaks in the document through the formal amendment process was well over a hundred years ago. Since then, the substance of our constitutional order has changed solely through de facto practice and Supreme Court “interpretations.” That each of these modes is ephemeral and reversible has become only too clear in the last couple of years. Lepore points out that progressive forces despaired of the (extremely difficult) formal amendment process and pursued socially-necessary changes through these other mechanisms. This includes both the considerable expansion of the scope of governmental activities (regulatory and social welfare), as well as civil rights for a range of groups. Now, the sauce for the goose is being served for the gander and the progressive goose is (sorry to mix befowled metaphors) cooked.

Even a dramatic political reversal and overruling of several recent Court decisions will only get us back to where we were twenty-five years ago. They won’t solve the underlying structural problems or reflect a 21C society.

A few weeks after Washington was inaugurated, a group of newly chosen representatives gathered outside Paris. Within just a few months, they launched what we call the French Revolution and, over the course of a few years, overturned the local variant of the long-established political and cultural society of Europe: the Ancien Regime. Images of the trés fabulique lives of Marie Antoinette et al. make it easy to consign this concept to history (even if the practice of “royal” elites dominating and exploiting a country continued well into the 20C). It would seem to have no resonance in our modern republican mentalité, but the Constitution is our Ancien Regime. By now, we are so deeply imbued with concepts like the “rule of law” that it’s hard to imagine that anything truly disruptive or radical could happen here (January 6 notwithstanding). Incumbents in such power structures have denied the possibility of change up to (sometimes past) the last minute, but it comes, sometimes suddenly and violently, sometimes in other painful stories. And, as the Stuarts, Bourbons, Romanovs, Pahlevis, and others can attest; no one knows what will emerge.

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Venezuela

1/9/2026

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Venezuela

Three years ago (120222, “Sauce for the Gander”), I wrote about geopolitical spheres of influence with particular focus on China and Taiwan. I compared that situation with the two-hundred-year-old predecessor to the “Don-roe” doctrine recently revived in Caracas. I noted that, based on our own historical practice, we didn’t have much basis for criticizing the Chinese for effectively claiming a sphere of influence encompassing Taiwan and the South China Sea. I don’t have much to add to the general point made there, other than to note that we have a long history of military interventions in Latin America, often (as here) from commercial motives (on top of some convenient distraction from domestic economic challenges). 

Beyond the obvious immediate problems of morality and international and domestic law arising from our kidnapping of Maduro and threats of coercion and control, our actions must make the Chinese feel smug about the implications for their freedom of action in their own backyard (even if we effectively pushed them out of our backyard); no to mention the Russians in their Ukrainian backyard. 

More fundamentally, coupled with the latest sword-rattling over Greenland (see also 011025, “Baby, It’s Cold Outside”), Cuba, and Mexico, the Administration is actively proclaiming the return of realpolitik as the basis of US foreign policy. Unfortunately, their timing is all wrong and their other foreign policy actions seem to undermine this latest thrust. The timing is wrong because China is a rising power and the US is relatively falling (see 121820, “Rising and Falling Powers”). Rather than doubling down on military might, we should be seeking other modes of constraining China, not least of which is building stronger alliances with others similarly situated (Europe, India, Japan). The practice of realpolitik, however, also requires clear-headed thinking about our strength and clear-headed thinking is rare enough, especially with the JV foreign policy team currently running the show (see 120525, “You Can’t Go Home Again"). 

You read it here first.

[and now back to our regularly-scheduled program.]

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Invisible Hand

1/9/2026

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Invisible Hand

Wherever one might be on the fan/critic spectrum of capitalism, we can all recognize its important impacts on how modern life works. Markets and money are central to the meaning and operations of a capitalist system and their pervasiveness has many ramifications. 

For millennia, money has been tangible (e.g. coins, cowrie shells) and transactions, even if mundane, were usually clearly noticeable. Mary Poppins, for instance, bought bird feed at tuppence a bag. She handed over some coins and got the goods in return. The shift to paper money (banknotes date back almost 4,000 years) was an important stage in the abstraction of value. The notes were a representation of value—often silver or gold—mediated by the promise of a bank or merchant to pay, but the notes had no inherent value themselves. As governments increasingly got into the act (e.g. China in the 7C), they, too, promised to redeem the paper for a chunk of precious metal. 

This link was broken in the aftermath of WWI, when reconstruction demands outstripped the piles of gold in government vaults. Those of a certain age remember when US paper money expressed a promise to redeem the note for some of that gold.

Until it didn’t. Nixon broke the formal link between money and gold in the US in 1971. Silver was eliminated from US coinage in 1965. Since then, we all rely solely on the social convention (back by statute) that our coins and paper are actually worth something more than the paper (or copper/zinc) that they’re printed on. 

As part of this broader shift, credit cards began to become widespread in the 1950s, further distancing value from transactions. Electronic transactions followed in the 1970s and now phones are banks and myriad apps (e.g. Venmo, PayPal, ApplePay, Zelle) make money instant and frictionless. Cryptocurrencies (with their own set of complications) are of a similar ilk.

We’ve come a long way from “tuppence a bag.”

One of the important implications of this historical process is that it’s become increasingly easy to forget that you’re spending money. As transactional friction has gone down, the psychological hurdle of handing over your hard-earned cash is lowered. It’s therefore easier to spend more. I doubt this is a coincidence.

The latest stage is the semi-invisible charge account. You give Uber your credit card and every time you take a ride, the money (indirectly and in stages) moves from your account to theirs. Subscriptions (e.g. Netflix, cell phones) accelerate this process. The transaction is so transparent and distant from actual usage that it virtually disappears and the funds automatically transfer to the service provider regardless of whether you actually use the service or not. Why worry about the cost of heating if your utility bill gets folded into your monthly credit card statement (along with dozens of other charges) which then gets paid by automatically dipping into your bank account? 

The perennial bugaboo of “hidden charges” is part of the same story. Most of the time legal requirements mandate their disclosure, but they’re usually buried in a plethora of fine print and legalese. Here in San Francisco, restaurants have taken this to a new level by adding a surcharge of 4-7% nominally for meeting local mandates for benefits for employees. How these additional costs are different from the other normal costs of doing business is not clear, but instead of bumping up the price of a $24 plate of pasta by $1.50, the restaurant puts a line in small print at the bottom of the page indicating the charge but leaving the “list price” the same. 

Karl Marx (and other critics of capitalism) have pointed out that the insertion of markets ensures alienation of both laborers and consumers from each other and the products and services created and utilized. Now that everything seems to pass through “the Cloud,” this distancing and alienation are increasing and, likely, contributing to the general sense of disconnection we all face in the modern world.

When Adam Smith talked about the invisible hand of the marketplace (another metaphor that has been seriously abused by subsequent interpreters), he likely didn’t imagine that invisible hand reaching down into our pockets and scooping up the cash without so much as a “by your leave.”

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Intent in Language

1/2/2026

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Perhaps it is my legal training, but I have long been focused on semantics. For a lawyer, words have meaning, usually a quite specific meaning— and we are attuned to the problems that arise when two people have differing thoughts in mind when they use the same word. You can’t, for example, have an agreement to share profits in a business without having a pretty specific idea of what “profit” means. So, a well-drafted legal agreement will always include a fair number of express definitions

One aspect of this attention to meaning has come up repeatedly for me in my study of history and related fields.  It is fundamental and, unsurprisingly, a bit obscure; but it sheds considerable light on how language works and, more importantly, how humans craft Histories.

Many terms carry an implication of consciousness, awareness or intent. Sometimes, they refer to a human, sometimes to a society, sometimes to some aspect of nature. Here are a few examples:

I was recently reading a study of evolution which discussed at great length the “struggle for existence.” To me, the term “struggle” connotes something more than just “making an effort in difficult circumstances.” Yes, work is involved; sometimes hard work, sometimes work that is unsuccessful; sometimes work that—when unsuccessful—ends in death. That work, however, is not inherently a “struggle for existence,” because when you’re referring to a plant, and animal, or even a group of humans, that effort is not made for the purpose of existing. For plants, most animals, and many groups of humans, there is no consciousness being exercised, so there can be no “purpose.” The goal is instinctual, or at least unconscious—to seek water or avoid pain. They have —literally— no idea what “existence” is, nor are they conscious of competition with others for whatever they’re seeking. In a similar vein, genes or species are often described as choosing to evolve in one manner or another. But, again, there’s no choice going on here. A mutation that gives a frog stronger legs will (likely) enable them to out jump some predator and so, survive and procreate more such strong-legged frogs. That’s it.

A recent well-regarded study of economic history provides another common example; “capitalism” we are told, “was dogmatic only about profits.” Leaving aside concerns about overgeneralization; this characterization imputes intent to an amorphic and disembodied “capitalism.” But capitalism (however defined (see Das Kapital 102122)) is no “thing.” Individual “capitalists” might have had particular goals (and profit would likely have led the list), but there was no group manifesto and, indeed, individuals in different eras and cultures had different mixes of motivations. Being “dogmatic,” in any event, requires some reasonably coherent focus. Similarly, events have no intent. The French Revolution didn’t “foreshadow” anything; subsequent historical echoes and rhymes are framed by Historians as being interpretable in the same light as the original event, but this is a far cry from the shorthand language being used. These are traps into which many who look backwards—professional or ordinary—fall.

If you read and listen carefully, you will likely find plenty of other examples; but a little self-reflection quickly shows that even in our own actions, clear and conscious intent is not as frequent as we might like to think. Much less when we get to organizations and other groups and certainly not when referring to amorphous constructs. Hell, despite vast scholarly attention we can’t say clear what the “intent” of the Founding Fathers was when they drafted the Constitution, the current fad for “originalism” notwithstanding.

There are several reasons for this practice. Using this kind of language is a variety of anthropomorphizing; that is, imputing human traits to other species or inanimate objects (the most common is “Mother Nature”). We do this to make the world more familiar. to cast it in terms WE understand. Second, it is also a variety of the psychological concept of “projecting”, i.e. making others seem more like ourselves. If we don’t have to account for our differences with others, we can live in a simpler and more familiar world. So, let’s just use language that makes others seem like us. This (thirdly) not only normalizes our own behavior and motivations, but also creates a world in which a higher percentage of phenomena and activities appear to be intentionally motivated. In other words, the world makes more sense because we can attribute these actions to someone/something’s plan to make them happen. 

This is especially important in History, where we are inherently hungry for coherent narrative; but it applies to our everyday lives today as well. One of the most common modes of imputing intent is to ascribe intent to “God.” The rationalization of the contingencies and variations of the world under the rubric of “god’s will” has been a ubiquitous theme of human societies for thousands of years. 

We similarly impute intent to the actions —whether unknown or merely inexplicable—of human actors. It’s more comforting to think, as the basis of many “conspiracy theories” for example, that there is a “deep state” planning to accomplish some nefarious deed, or a country’s decision to go to war is ascribed to some strategic vision. In fact, such decisions can as often be attributed to much more mundane occurrences or emotions. Immense effort went into blaming Germany for starting WWI, for example, rather than dealing with the fact that the assassination of the Austrian Archduke was a fluke of timing and circumstance. 

It could be argued that all this practice is merely metaphor; but metaphor used so frequently and without comment quickly loses its referential anchor for both writer and reader and passes into unconsciousness. In other words, the metaphor is forgotten and the meaning referred to—the intentionality of the action—stands on its own. In this case we construct a view of the world and its history that places human intent at the center of things. It may be more comfortable to think there’s a plan (human or divine), but most of the time—just like the stars that appear to make up Orion’s Belt, but are really many light years apart—it’s merely a comforting story.

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    Condemned to Repeat It --
    Musings on history, society, and the world.

    I don't actually agree with Santayana's famous quote, but this is my contribution to my version of it: "Anyone who hears Santayana's quote is condemned to repeat it."

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