A Whole New Ballgame
Joltin’ Joe’s decision today may be the most momentous political event of the year…or, it may be just turn into an eerie footnote. As of today, no one knows (or, as a friend of mine says: “KNK”). Historians are bad at predicting the future (as is pretty much everyone), so I won’t go out on any limbs here. You will be able to read hundreds of scenarios covering the next few months printed and posted everywhere and at least some of them are accurate. Whatever….
He shouldn’t have put himself, his party, and his country in this position. It just goes to show that even nice and non-ostentatious guys can fall prey to the “indispensable man” self-mythology. It’s particularly hard as President to avoid it, with all the fawning and kowtowing, most have succumbed, one way or another. At least he caught himself.
The events of the past week or so have amply demonstrated why prognostication is a mug’s game and the foolishness of the concept of inevitability. Those who have heard me talk about the origins of WWI have heard about the flukiness of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and it’s (hardly inevitable) consequences. The same can be said of a recent visitor to Western Pennsylvania who turned his head at the precise moment that some discontent pulled a trigger and nicked an ear. Football is not the only game of inches.
The ”coulda, shoulda, woulda”s come cascading down. An open Republican convention simultaneously mourning for its lost monarch without any ideological or institutional coherence would have been quite a sight. What would Joe have done then?
Now, the bullet missed and Joe bowed out and we enter into territory untrodden by any modern political party. We haven’t had anything close to an open convention (in either party) for over sixty years. It’s almost fallen completely out of living memory. History, despite the many references that will (inevitably??) be trotted out over the next few weeks, gives no guidance. The changes in the electorate, the parties, the media, etc. ensure that both precedent and analogy are meaningless.
[btw, you can see my discussion on alternatives to Joe and Mr. MAGA from January here.] http://www.steveharris.net/condemned-to-repeat-it/alternatives
I, for one, am optimistic; and not just because the prospect of the orange-haired one swearing to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States” is nauseating.
The Dems have multiple plausible candidates. These folks will have a chance to stand before the public and make their case. The Convention Delegates will choose, but they will do so with the real attention of the country on them. Let’s see some real politics for a change, where the media hype can’t keep up with the real stuff and there’s little time to pre-package and pre-judge. If we’re lucky….
I’m reminded of my all-time favorite scene from “The West Wing” where, just seconds prior to the Presidential debate, the First Lady snips off the President’s tie, causing a great fluster. The adrenaline charge was tangible and Jed Bartlett crushed his opponent. I’m hoping the same is true for the Dems and for the millions who are bored and disenchanted with our current politics. Game On!
For all the noise about immigration, abortion rights, taxes, and Ukraine, this election (like almost all) is not about the issues. To some extent, it’s not even about the actual candidates. It’s about feelings. It’s about feeling like we’re being listened to. And, when I say “we,” I mean the folks in the center who are exhausted by the rhetoric and the prioritization of secondary and tertiary issues. They (we) are looking for inspiration and hope in a troubled world. We’re looking for policy directions that affect real people now ( not hypothetical tweaks to Supreme Court terms or picking fight the Chinese). Still, many of the significant issues are not readily solvable, certainly not in the space of one term and not without more fundamental changes in culture and attitude. Further, our system is pretty stultified, so that even if one party sweeps, their majorities in each house will be marginal.
So, no, it’s not about policy. It’s about leadership and energy. Joe’s done well, but he’s out of gas. The other guy is great at negativity and anger, but that won’t carry the day unless a fair number of folks sit it out. It will be up to whoever emerges from Chicago in mid-August to figure out how to get them off their butts.
Joltin’ Joe’s decision today may be the most momentous political event of the year…or, it may be just turn into an eerie footnote. As of today, no one knows (or, as a friend of mine says: “KNK”). Historians are bad at predicting the future (as is pretty much everyone), so I won’t go out on any limbs here. You will be able to read hundreds of scenarios covering the next few months printed and posted everywhere and at least some of them are accurate. Whatever….
He shouldn’t have put himself, his party, and his country in this position. It just goes to show that even nice and non-ostentatious guys can fall prey to the “indispensable man” self-mythology. It’s particularly hard as President to avoid it, with all the fawning and kowtowing, most have succumbed, one way or another. At least he caught himself.
The events of the past week or so have amply demonstrated why prognostication is a mug’s game and the foolishness of the concept of inevitability. Those who have heard me talk about the origins of WWI have heard about the flukiness of the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand and it’s (hardly inevitable) consequences. The same can be said of a recent visitor to Western Pennsylvania who turned his head at the precise moment that some discontent pulled a trigger and nicked an ear. Football is not the only game of inches.
The ”coulda, shoulda, woulda”s come cascading down. An open Republican convention simultaneously mourning for its lost monarch without any ideological or institutional coherence would have been quite a sight. What would Joe have done then?
Now, the bullet missed and Joe bowed out and we enter into territory untrodden by any modern political party. We haven’t had anything close to an open convention (in either party) for over sixty years. It’s almost fallen completely out of living memory. History, despite the many references that will (inevitably??) be trotted out over the next few weeks, gives no guidance. The changes in the electorate, the parties, the media, etc. ensure that both precedent and analogy are meaningless.
[btw, you can see my discussion on alternatives to Joe and Mr. MAGA from January here.] http://www.steveharris.net/condemned-to-repeat-it/alternatives
I, for one, am optimistic; and not just because the prospect of the orange-haired one swearing to “preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States” is nauseating.
The Dems have multiple plausible candidates. These folks will have a chance to stand before the public and make their case. The Convention Delegates will choose, but they will do so with the real attention of the country on them. Let’s see some real politics for a change, where the media hype can’t keep up with the real stuff and there’s little time to pre-package and pre-judge. If we’re lucky….
I’m reminded of my all-time favorite scene from “The West Wing” where, just seconds prior to the Presidential debate, the First Lady snips off the President’s tie, causing a great fluster. The adrenaline charge was tangible and Jed Bartlett crushed his opponent. I’m hoping the same is true for the Dems and for the millions who are bored and disenchanted with our current politics. Game On!
For all the noise about immigration, abortion rights, taxes, and Ukraine, this election (like almost all) is not about the issues. To some extent, it’s not even about the actual candidates. It’s about feelings. It’s about feeling like we’re being listened to. And, when I say “we,” I mean the folks in the center who are exhausted by the rhetoric and the prioritization of secondary and tertiary issues. They (we) are looking for inspiration and hope in a troubled world. We’re looking for policy directions that affect real people now ( not hypothetical tweaks to Supreme Court terms or picking fight the Chinese). Still, many of the significant issues are not readily solvable, certainly not in the space of one term and not without more fundamental changes in culture and attitude. Further, our system is pretty stultified, so that even if one party sweeps, their majorities in each house will be marginal.
So, no, it’s not about policy. It’s about leadership and energy. Joe’s done well, but he’s out of gas. The other guy is great at negativity and anger, but that won’t carry the day unless a fair number of folks sit it out. It will be up to whoever emerges from Chicago in mid-August to figure out how to get them off their butts.
RSS Feed